First off, this was a very hard situation to try and forecast and continues that way. There are some indications on the latest models that things shift a bit and are much drier. I am not there yet on that, but I have concerns. National radar shows the system struggling to move precip north. That being said it has not really come east totally yet.
Second, I think I am going to bust again to the north, but which way? I suspect I remain too bullish on the precip for Northern VA up into MD. But I dunno. The system could do something even more different and throw us all for a loop.
Lastly, any intensity change in precip will make a big difference. If we get into any heavy precip we will see snow.. lighter and it could be a mix! Yes, this is barely cold enough. I remember a storm like this in Richmond. It snows 4 to 6 inches and we went to our sledding hill with our flexible flyer rudder type sleds. Well, we were not doing well because it was a slushy mess. That is the kind of snow this will be until later in the evening tomorrow for folks along I-95.
If I were traveling for a big snow, I would go to Roanoke or the the Blacksburg area. Just looks ideal.
At this point, models will be less perfect, and Radar will be your guide.
Lastly, I am not around too much tomorrow until 1pm or later. I will try and take a reading of the weather once an our and post to Facebook or Twitter. I am not likely to be on the computer all the time. I will note any trends and I expect surprises – I hope good ones, but this may trend drier if the models continue or shift dramatically. It is hard to tell..
All for now. Follow me on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/midatlanticweather or twitter at http://www.twitter.com/midatlanticwx .
Seriously too, I will be posting more to twitter than Facebook from my cell phone!
All for now!