The NWS is BUSY! We have some mixture of sleet and snow as well as pockets of Freezing rain out west today. Rain will be showery for a long while today and become more constant this afternoon and evening and more heavy tonight and tomorrow. Winds will be strong, especially in SW VA and Western NC where wind advisories are hoisted. Rains will come down strong enough that streams and creeks will flow out of their banks. I suspect we will see Flood Watches turn to many flood warning starting about 7am tomorrow morning in SW VA and far Western VA, spreading eastward to along the I-95 Counties and just to the west by early afternoon and being widespread across central VA and Central VA by mid to late afternoon. 1 – 3″ of rain will fall almost everywhere. Pockets of rain in the 3 to 4″ range should occur across central VA up into Central MD by tomorrow evening. Those totals will then be seen up into Central and Eastern PA, and NJ. With the strong onshore flow we also will be dealing with coastal flooding. If this were not enough, the dynamics caused by the developing low pressure over SW VA will be strong enough to cause some severe storms, including the possibility of isolated tornadoes. SPC has highlighted eastern VA and Eastern NC with a slight risk for tomorrow due to this – http://www.midatlanticweather.com/severe/day2severe.htm
After all the rain has fallen, the rivers and streams will also have a chance to spill over their banks so expect follow up flood warning for these as well! BUSY times indeed.
What about the wintry mix? Well, this morning as the moisture arrives, very dry air is in place and this is lowering temps at the onset of some precipitation and causing rain to mix with snow and sleet, especially in the mountains and valleys. There are even some places that could see a little freezing rain. Temps will rise and this should be a very short period of time. However,once the low that moves over the region goes north and swings the front through, Western slopes of the mountains and even areas of NW VA, and Western MD could see some snow as the precipitation ends.
Friday looks breezy and cool and then we have seasonal temps in the 47 to 58 degree range Friday, warming to the low 50s North to mid 60s south for the weekend.
There are some signs that by mid next week things could cool down to about 5 to 10 degrees below normal which would mean highs in the north only in the low and mid 40s at best for a few days. There MAY be some wintry weather to watch out for then as well, but it is very far off.
All for now!