First off.. BRRRRR It is cold and windy. Tonight we will see some serious cold in the mountains with Wind Chill Advisories possible. Wind Advisories are up for many until this evening, and are well needed.
Concerning the upcoming winter weather threat:
I am sure of a few things:
1. The Southeastern Third of VA will mainly see rain from the upcoming event
2. Rain will be mixed in with snow and sleet and maybe pockets of freezing rain for most the middle third with transitions to rain and then maybe back to snow at the end.
3. It is the Northwestern third of VA and Western 2/3rds of Maryland that leave me scratching my head! I am now thinking we *COULD* see some accumulating snows.. maybe a couple of inches. The further north you are, the more the possibilities. At a maximum I could see some places at 1 to 3 inches of snow and that would especially be true of upper Maryland. It is highly dependent on how explosive the storm is off the North Carolina coast. If it explodes sooner than thought, we could see a more widespread event.
So for now, I would say the Northwestern 2/3rds of VA and Maryland will see a wintry mix with snow being more prevalent the further north and west you are. The precip will likely transition to more rain during day hours and then back to snow towards evening as the storm begins to get its act together. This could change, but my best guess is that areas from Warrenton to Dulles Virginia to Towson Maryland could see an inch to as much as 2 inches of snow and slop. Areas North of Towson MD and east of York, PA could see 2 to 4 inches. North of this should see a lot more.
After this storm bombs in the Northeast it could be a factor in setting up a better winter storm pattern early next week.
After the event it also looks to be COLD. Also, January as a whole looks like it is going to be very cold from what I can see at this point.
Things could change and if they do I will update.
All for now.