TD1


Atlantic Tropical Depression ONE Special Discussion Number 1Fri, 25
Jun 2010 17:16:57 -0500000

WTNT41 KNHC 252216

TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010

600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE

DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED

CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND 1004

MB. BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT…ADVISORIES ARE BEING

INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF WIND DATA FROM THE

AIRCRAFT AND SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS.

THE DEPRESSION IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH…AND

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT

REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A DAY OR SO. AFTER WEAKENING OVER

LAND…THE CYCLONE COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH WHEN IT ENTERS THE

SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE

TO THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL…WHICH INCLUDES THE EFFECTS OF

INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS

300/09. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF

MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS…THEREFORE A GENERAL

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME…WHICH

SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE

SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER 72 HOURS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE

DIVERGES…WITH ONE GROUP…INCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFDL…TAKING

THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. A SECOND

GROUP OF GUIDANCE…INCLUDING THE GFS…ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE

SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS REQUIRED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE

YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. IF THE CYCLONE MOVES SOUTH OF THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK…A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE MAY

BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2200Z 16.5N 83.5W 30 KT

12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.4N 84.7W 35 KT

24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 86.5W 40 KT

36HR VT 27/0600Z 19.5N 88.0W 45 KT…INLAND

48HR VT 27/1800Z 21.0N 89.5W 25 KT…INLAND

72HR VT 28/1800Z 23.0N 91.5W 30 KT

96HR VT 29/1800Z 24.0N 92.5W 35 KT

120HR VT 30/1800Z 25.0N 93.5W 40 KT

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN


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