Snow threat still there.. but not as enthusiastic about a big event


Trends on models have been to get this storm together later than would be needed for a larger snowstorm in the area. that being said, some details are obviously not know, and this one has a chance to surprise us. The forecast models have shown a move further east and north with the precipitation. This trend may continue or could be wrong. I am certain some precipitation will fall tomorrow and tomorrow night. I am also fairly certain areas will see snow after some rain for a while. I am not certain if much more than 1  to 3 inches would fall. Areas likely to see snow after a mix would actually be along and just east of I 95 north of Fredericksburg and this would happen tomorrow night. Areas west of I 95 north of Fredericksburg and just up and east of the Piedmont could see a 1 to 2" snow. If models continue to trend unfavorable for heavier precipitation, rain may not turn to snow until right at the end. On the other hand, there may be some more adjustments

So I am not enthusiastic about a big storm, and I am concerned by the trends. They could reverse and we could see more snow so this one is going to be a tough one!

More to come!