Today looks nice and sunny. Highs in the 80s! Warmer tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s south with mid and upper 80s north. Increased chances of showers and storms as strong cold front approaches. This front will bring a rainy Wednesday as well and slowly clear Thursday. Temps in the north will be only in the 60s Wednesday and low 80s in the south. This front clears the area and sets up a nice weekend with temps near 70 in the north and the low 80s in the south! Coastal areas of North and South Carolina will see an increased chance of showers and storms Saturday night and Sunday.
Eyes then turn to Irma and what she will do in the long range! Surf along the coast is likely to get rough Sunday and beyond!
She remains a threat to the Southeastern United States Coast.
Talk about changes in models! WOW! The latest MODELS show Irma may impact Florida or even a Southern Florida! The system that was being forecasted to help it come north may miss it and another system may finally help it come north!! So many reminders of why long range forecasting for such systems is really unreliable past five days! So even what I am sharing now will likely adjust. Anyone from Florida to the Carolinas should keep monitoring and I do not care what my gut call or feelings are, they cannot be trusted! LOL! WHAT I CAN SAY is that anyone from Florida to the Carolinas should get some supplies. Water is already going off shelves and that should continue. You have a chance still to order from Amazon or other services as well! About all that I can say so far today so far!
AT THIS POINT do not trust anyone with definite forecasts! Also, I think Irma will be very strong no matter what and have an impact on regions, but some models show a ridiculous strength Hurricane and this is not likely! WHICH regions will be impacted exactly, when, and how strong are all debatable. I would say, that there is a strong leaning towards at least coastal impacts from Florida to the Mid Atlantic, and a higher than normal chance of a landfall (or even multiple with Florida and maybe again in the Carolinas!) but WE JUST DO NOT KNOW YET!
Rains are ongoing in the Carolinas and the Severe weather threat is actually increasing down there due to the spin in the atmosphere. So as its final number the chance of tornadoes increased and the Severe Storms Prediction Center upped it to an enhanced chance of severe.
Rain totals over the next few days. Note that regions in SE VA and Eastern NC remain saturated so some flooding will be possible but does not look widespread.
Temperatures will be quite cool with highs in the 60s in the north and 70s to the south. Very humid with all the tropical moisture around. We should see improving conditions on Sunday with rain and clouds slowly eroding from the west to the east. Temps will rebound where there is sun, into the 70s and 80s. After a few days of drier weather and warmer temps, things will start to become more cloudy Tuesday through Thursday of next week as another frontal system slowly moves through. This could be the edge of much cooler air that I have been mentioning for a while. We will have to keep an eye on Irma in the long range, and, honestly, when you have Hurricanes interact with the weather, I become unsure of the outcome. So a chance of cooler weather and watching Irma is the long range outlook at this time!
AND, lest you forget, cooler air is starting to increase and caused Frost Advisories in upstate New York for tonight!
I want to address the “Tropical Threat” that Hurricane Irma could pose to the east coast.
FIRST – We are around 10 days from it possibly getting close to the United States and what forecasters see on weather models is unlikely to be the final story for the storm.
SECOND – I do recommend people have disaster plans! http://ready.gov has a lot of resources. Take the time to read and create some kind of plan and then hope you never have to use it!
THIRD – OK, so the pattern this time around for the Atlantic Ocean is a bit anomalous, and, if the patterns are close to what models show now, it DOES lead me to believe that Irma will be a close call or a hit somewhere from the Gulf of Mexico to New England! YA.. that is as specific as it gets!
BUT THIS IS ALL CONJECTURE and conclusions from forecast models which really drop off in accuracy after 5 days! We will see and know a lot more over the next week and all you can do is think of some obvious items that could help! Like, clean gutters and drainage areas, consider having some water on hand if you lose power and would need it. MAYBE, in the next few days take the generator out and start it..just do some simple things and then listen to see if more actions are needed. Let us seriously hope we have NO MORE tropical systems hit land this year! But take some time to think of what you may do in the midst of a natural disaster. Write it down, share with the family since we are in a calm but more aware time knowing what can happen due to Harvey. It will help to talk it out and maybe provide some peace to your family since Harvey was unique in what it did! Then do the few practical things like what I mentioned because they do not require any urgent action. WHAT YOU DO NOT WANT TO HAPPEN is something does become urgent and you have not thought it out, have no way to get supplies, and start to panic. You can stay calmer with a plan!
I will do a quick blurb daily on what I think of Irma – but they will be brief until I think we need more detail because she would affect us! She currently has 115 mph winds and is 1600+ miles east of the Leeward Islands.. WAY OUT THERE! Still way closer to Africa than the United States! She is moving west, Thi is about all we know at this point! She is forecast to strengthen some and is forecasted to become a Category 4 storm in the next few days.
It is hard to imagine the amount of rain that has already fallen in parts of the Houston area and more rain is on the way. Devastating, heart-wrenching, catastrophic.. just I cannot express how terrible I feel after reading tweets and Facebook posts of people in the storm! Please Pray for Texas and then look for practical ways to help, money or otherwise. Days, weeks, and years will be needed for people to recover. This is Houston’s Katrina.
For our weather, a stalled out front along the East Coast will pick up a tropical system near Florida and ride up along the coast. Rain from the storm could be several inches along the coast. Due to easily winds and rough water, rip currents are already a problem so please heed lifeguards and be very safe. Heavy rain and gusty winds will mainly be confined to coastal areas. Elsewhere the easterly fetch and a low-pressure coming up the coast should increase the chance of rain over the next several days. Very cool conditions for this time a year with highs struggling to reach 70° in northern areas and in the low and mid-70s to the South on Monday. Temperatures will increase slightly through the week and will reach 80 in the north by Thursday. As of now, drier air will start to push into the region Thursday and this could set up a very nice weekend.
Longer-term a chance exists for a front any coastal low sometime in the first week of September. There is a chance that this could bring much cooler air into the region sometime late that first week. Since this is so far out I would not plan on it yet but it is something I wanted to share
The weather is a lot better today, depending on where you are. Everyone North of the front is experiencing pleasant weather and lower humidity. However, people in far Southeast Virginia down into North Carolina and South Carolina are still seeing a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. That front will remain hung up in North Carolina and especially areas to the east could see excessive rainfall. Another front should push into the area Monday and provide another chance for showers and thunderstorms. There will also be a chance for some severe storms Monday as the front passes through. Temperatures will remain in the mid and upper 80s North of the front and around 90 South of the front over the next 2 days, and then 90s more prominent area wide Monday. Temperatures will continue to be in the upper 80s and low 90s through the remainder of next week. For Friday of next week, a front could be approaching the north and bring another chance of showers and Thunder storms. If this front is to make it through parts of the area it could bring cooler conditions. I suspect that front will be hung in North Carolina area and will retreat to the north and bring warmer temperatures, but possibly giving Virginia a pleasant Saturday and Sunday later. Depending on where that front gets hung up it could bring showers and storms including heavy rains. Additionally, that front seems to be a focus for more severe weather. We will have to wait and see!
Heads up to continued heat today and possible severe weather. See the Severe Storms Prediction center outline for severe below. The front makes it into southern Virginia tomorrow which will continue the threat for showers and storms for the southern third of VA down into NC.. it then is in NC Sunday. Temps will come down in the areas under clouds and north of the front. North of the front, a noticeable drop in humidity. Heat is not really going away and 90s will return next week for anyone seeing upper 80s this weekend (except the mountains of course!).
Watch for the severe today! Very heavy rains may also cause flash flooding. Heavy winds and small hail would be the biggest threat from the storms today!
The lower humidity yesterday for most of Virginia, DC, MD, PA will slowly lose in the next day. We also have a disturbance that could fire some severe into PA. Today looks hot. Highs again into the 90s along I-95 and a typical chance of Thunderstorms. The front will advance southward and pass the region tomorrow before getting hung up as a stationary front. That front will be the focus of chances of showers and storms through the rest of the week. That stall could really make it wet for southern VA and especially eastern NC and SC! Temps will remain at or slightly above normal south of the front and humid. Along and north of the front, there will be better temps in the mid-80s and plenty of moisture and humidity. Another front will be coming through Saturday and this one looks like it will push a much cooler air mass into the area. Things start to clear to Sunday, humidity drops and nice temperatures follow! for a while. Another reinforcement of nice air could hit next week as well. The pattern really changed in the long range from the way it looks last week! There is a really strong chance of a Tropical System and we will be watching this into the next week.
The song from Les Miserables came to mind – at least one little part – One Day More! Of the nice weather in this case! Not that tomorrow will be super humid everywhere, but temps will go from these crazy comfortable, and, in the case of some mountainous locations last night, cold conditions, to much more typical summer heat and actually above normal! Temps, east of the mountains, will climb close to 90 tomorrow. That story will repeat Friday through the weekend and straight to the 4th! And with that heat – a daily chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms starting Friday. A better chance of showers and Storms will be Saturday Afternoon and overnight in the north. Mor isolated chances Sunday and Monday.
Looks HOT and Humid! Highs will stay about the same.. Although there is a chance of temps into the mid-90s according to some models! Needless to say, water drinking, light clothing, and lots of sunscreen will be needed!
Check out my new Speculation Page! http://midatlanticweather.com/speculation-627
Long range remains hot looking and above normal in Precip!