model diagnostics


, i wanted to explain the difficulty in forecasting with the models. you see, you cant just look at the models and make a forecast. some models have a bias to them for example… the GFS has a cold bias. the ECMWF( euro) has a warm bias., so you have to factor that in… also.. the gfs is known to take a storm wayyy off shore than as days go by, start to bring it back west, so you have to really wait till it gets within 4 or 3 days before you can really make a real guess. and even only 3 days out, the models will still have their bias's, so you have to take that into account. soo… this storm coming on thursday-friday. needs to have more time, the gfs has it a bit too cold. the euro has it a bit too warm. the gfs is a little off the coast, and the ggem is a little off the coast, dgex looks good, right on the benchmark at 18z. the euro, is a tad too far inland. the ukmet, looks pretty good, so… got to take all this into
account, as most models will still fluctuate run to run. so….

basically, we probably wont a have a real good idea who gets snow, and who gets rain till about wednesday. so stay tuned… Jimmy and I will keep you posted

***luke***