Heavy rains tonight – Gradual Clearing tomorrow – especially west – more rains Monday – Some thoughts on winter!

Rains have been heavy which is bad for SW VA and Western NC as some flooding has kicked up again. Rains will start to decrease, but will be slow to do some. Some rains will continue to be heavy at times for the eastern region in the morning and some thunderstorms will also be possible east of I-95.

Monday, a front will come through and drop temps from the 70s North and Low to mid 80s south (which we will see tomorrow and the next day) to just 60s north and low and mid 70s south. The Upper 60s and low to mid 70s should then persist with drier days through Friday!

What of winter?
I said I would start to look at factors that could help predict the upcoming winter and the first is too early to tell. The snow pack.. We will need to watch this up until about Thanksgiving before I get a sense of the possible tell tale on the snow and cold for the region.

As of now, the forecasts I have seen are calling for a warmer than normal winter and below normal snow. I think it is a bit early to make the call but there are some hints that I am noticing on why. The biggest is the lack of a moderate El Nino which looked like it may make its presence known.. predictions have slackened on it so that too is something to note.

Other things that will help include SSTs and also the patterns we see this fall. I have been a bit encouraged by seeing the precip and some cold intrusions along the Eastern seaboard (being the snow lover I am) but nothing is totally there on a pattern yet.

All for now!!