The NC/VA border is the focus line for snow! Mountains to coast snow for these folks. I would then go 50 miles either side of that for the heaviest snow! I am thinking widespread 6 to 12 inches in this area with some up to 14 – 16". Snow will then quickly drop off! Again drawing an east to west line from Charlotessville to Chincoteaugue, and down to Richmond I am thinking 3 to 6. Another thin band from Harrisonburg to Ocean City Maryland down to the last line for 1 to 3 inches. Above this up to Virginia and Maryland border could see up to 1 inch of light snow.
This could do 3 things!
1. Go South further (VERY possible)
2. Come north (possible)
3. Become a lighter event overall. This is hinted at currently.
Things that make this a southern storm- Really just 1 thing! The Polar Vortex (PV) over the Northeast is very far south and extremely strong. This Low is funneling cold air south and locking the air mass in place. This makes the system unable to come north!
Unless this PV weakens or moves we will not see a north progression. Models keep making it stronger!
All for now! Thinking map will not be posted tonight. Too tired! Too late!