2/17 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook


Cooler conditions today, but not too far from seasonal. Slow moderating temperatures. Still a RISK of some snow Sunday night into Monday north. Remembering Presidents Day Snow Storm 2003! Next week still bears watching but locking cold has been hard to keep around.

Summary:

Colder northwesterly winds will keep temperatures 20 degrees cooler than yesterday for most parts. Upslope western Mountain Snow showers are occurring this morning and will continue into tonight. Even colder Friday, but the weekend begins a moderation in temperatures. The moderating temperature is a sign that the ability for cold air to lock in to the region is not there! Thus, as precipitation begins to overrun the colder air, it will eventually overpower whatever cold air is left in the region. Sunday night into Monday enough leftovers (or stale) cold air will be around to see some snow and sleet at the onset of precipitation, but changeover will likely occur, much like last week. This mix is only likely in the Northern piedmont areas. There is a chance that a few inches could fall before the changeover, so we do need to watch it! Cold rain Monday for most areas, especially during the afternoon. Tuesday still has cool temperatures, but nothing too out of the ordinary next week. Another system approaches the region towards the end of the week, and, though we are not really cold, there is the chance of some winter weather with it as well.

Of note, the cold in Canada is not as brutal as it has been in the past and it appears that the polar Vortex will retreat Canada. That being said, there is new life in one of the models of a Polar Vortex developing next week. If this comes to fruition, colder readings and a renewed threat for winter weather could come into play. Right now, models in the longer term do not give me much reason to accept them. Just a few days ago I was very excited about a big storm possibility, but now, things have really changed!

Speaking of Big Storms, this date was the last day of the BIG Presidents Day Snowstorm in 2003. I measure 27 inches of snow which was the largest snow I have ever seen in my life! That storm was amazing and, if we had not turned over to sleet all of Sunday Night, I would have probably never expected to see a bigger snow in my
lifetime. But, that may still be possible!

Some Pictures: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/pd2/snow0203p1.jpg http://www.midatlanticweather.com/pd2/snow0203p2.jpg http://www.midatlanticweather.com/pd2/snow0203p3.jpg http://www.midatlanticweather.com/pd2/snow0203p4.jpg http://www.midatlanticweather.com/pd2/snow0203p5.jpg http://www.midatlanticweather.com/pd2/snow0203p6.jpg For perspective the
last photo. That building is 4.5″ tall at the crest. The fence is 6′ .
Here is that shed at
Lowes: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/pd2/shed.jpg

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Forecast:

Today: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Expecting some breezy conditions with much cooler temperatures.

Friday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 35-45

Cold

Saturday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Cool. Increasing cloudiness.

Sunday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 35-45

Cold. Precipitation (Snow/Rain/Sleet something) possible. Rain more likely in the south, mix or even snow north. Likely not arriving until Night Time hours

Monday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 35-45

Rain south and precipitation (Snow/Rain/Sleet something) changing to rain and drizzle by afternoon. In the North there is a possible switch back to snow if a coastal can wrap colder air back in. Nothing too substantial though.

Tuesday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Cool with Partly Cloudy Skies

Wednesday: SW: 40-50 SE: 45-55 N: 45-55

Cool with Partly Cloudy Skies

Thursday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Cool with Partly Cloudy Skies

Long Term:

There is another system to watch next week, though its outcome is likely rain. I will continue to monitor conditions, but the current trend favors less cold over time.

All for Now!