12/27 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook


That was a very close call for all, and Southeastern VA and Lower southern Maryland were slammed!! See link to storm information in Southeastern Virginia. Now our pattern shifts as we will get warmer, but the question is, how long will it last?

Summary:
What an amazing storm that was, but it was too far South and east. Now, I am not blowing my horn, but I am telling you, the Winter forecast I posted talked about MORE precipitation chances in the Southern areas with normal temperatures.. But obviously, I had no idea it would be snow, so I busted bad on the snow forecast! Though we have had some brutally cold days, we have had some seriously mild days and we look headed back to warmer pattern for the next 8-12 days. How warm? I am seriously thinking 70s are not out of the question for parts of southern Virginia this coming weekend, but this time of year holds punches of cold off the ocean and other areas that tend to squash such warm outlooks! The reason for the warm up? Well, after the departing low that was the storm for southeastern VA (and Blizzard now for Parts of The Newfoundland and other areas) the Polar Vortex which USUALLY sets up over Canada will move over to Greenland, the West coast will have a huge trough break down its ridge, and the Southeast looks to have a big ridge in place! So here comes summer, in winter, which means not the heat wave, but the warmer pattern! There are variances in some models that do allow peaks of colder air to do some things that will make a risk for frozen precip, but right now, I would not hold out hopes (of course fro snow lovers). Now reading what I have today from long term model analysis we see a couple scenarios possible for January that have to be watched. First, if a Ridge type set up occurs in the west up into Alaska there is a possibility of extremely cold air breaking free and causing a stormy and cold month after January 10th..BUT..there are signs that the shifts we are seeing the next 10 days may actually establish themselves and give a strong Pacific Jet stream which would mean mild to warm Pacific air would set up shop over the US. Now, I take 0 credit for looking into this. DT of Wxrisk.com pointed it out today and I appreciated the information. It will be something to watch, but if the warmer pattern verifies, my forecast of normal temps will need to say above normal temps and I will bust my winter forecast..WHICH, by the way… I have completely busted for Southeastern VA as now I can say they are going to have above normal snow this winter, because they already have!!!!
Link on this weekend storm: http://home.hamptonroads.com/stories/story.cfm?story=79785&ran;=173824
** Note: I apologize for the lack of posting this weekend, but being out of town limited me a lot! **

Forecast:

Today:
SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 30-40
Remaining cold and windy early.

Tuesday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 35-45
Partly Cloudy

Wednesday: SW: 54-64 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60
Warmer! Nice. Sunny

Thursday: SW: 57-67 SE: 58-68 N: 50-60
Continued Partly Sunny and very nice!

Friday: SW: 57-67 SE: 58-68 N: 50-60
Continued Partly Sunny and very nice!

Saturday: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 55-65
Possibly the warmest day of this warm spell!

Sunday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60
Potential for showers. Some models want to drop some colder air in here from what is called a back door cold front. I will watch the models, but I am doubting it.

Long Term:
As noted in the summary, this pattern must be watched to see if it will keep itself established. After this wee of dry and nice weather, we could hit mild and rainy conditions for many days next week. Again, there are some scenarios that say we could have a temporary intrusion of colder air, but nothing truly arctic. That will have to wait until January 10th timeframe, and that, as of today, may be in jeopardy based on the scenarios seen in some long-term model analysis.

All for now!