12/22 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook


Above normal temps today, with some increase in clouds. Tomorrow will be very windy and rainy, thunderstorms will be possible. Friday will be cooler and a pretty cold weekend to set up. Ever so slight chance that snow could be still in the picture this weekend, but almost all hopes are off if you wanted it. It appears a pattern change is in the offing again and warmer pattern will set up, but there are a few questions about it.

 

Summary:

What a warm up! Highs will be 50s and 60s today as clouds start to increase. The Midwest is getting a very big snow storm so if you have travel plans the next 24 hours or so, keep alert to the weather! As far as Thursday, strong winds and shear upper level conditions could produce some thunderstorms. If instability were really to increase, severe storms could fire, and they very well may for the Southeastern states. NO MODEL shows the storm along the Gulf coast coming further north, but there are some meteorological variables that are not clear yet to totally discount the system moving northward and causing some snow Sunday, but the odds are clearly against this happening, but it is one of those systems that you canĂ‚?t completely ignore, but probably should be! The weather pattern is likely to change as the PNA (Pacific North American) Ridge (known as the +PNA) on the west coast looks to collapse. This PNA ridge has been the only factor so far to drive colder air from Canada into the eastern part of the United States,  so, if it breaks down as forecast, we will likely see a warmer pattern set up. It will likely warm up next week as this feature will collapse, but the question is whether or not it is a transient breakdown and the +PNA could come back fairly quickly. Something to watch as temperature implications would be dramatic here. The reason for some of the uncertainty is the models sometimes over play the effects of Polar air which will drive down the plains and into Texas the next few days before spreading east over us for the weekend. Due to its drive, the models show snow/sleet/ice for the Gulf Coast states this weekend! That is dramatic! As I said, the odd weather forecasted give some doubt to the models, but they do seem to agree with each other. I will, of course, keep watching!

 

 

Today: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 48-58

Above Normal Temperatures! Increasing clouds. Rain developing overnight.

 

Thursday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 48-58

Rain! Some Thunder possible! Very Windy!

 

Friday: SW: 40-50  SE: 40-50 N: 35-45

Cloudy. Temps much colder.

 

Saturday: SW: 30-40  SE: 30-40 N: 25-35

Cloudy. Cold.

 

Sunday: SW: 35-45  SE: 35-45 N: 30-40

Cloudy.. (will watch for storminess, but not too excited right now.)

 

Monday: SW: 45-55  SE: 45-55 N: 40-50

Partly to mostly sunny and warmer.

 

Long Term:

Seeing a warm up as the positive PNA pattern breaks down for a while. Could see temps climb well above normal next week before a cool down around the new year. I can say, recently it has been very tough forecasting long term!

  

All for now!

 

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