12/21 VA/MD/DC Weather Outlook


Dramatic reversal of temperatures today! Temps will warm to normal or above! Now that shows a non-sticking pattern in the upper atmosphere, which should be the focus today. First off, the NAO that I ahd thought would really go negative this week, did not! That means the cold has no sticking power and thus we warm dramatically today, tomorrow and Thursday! Temps will be in the 50s and 60s in parts of the region Wednesday and Thursday. IF instability is strong enough, isolated thunderstorms during a frontal passage Thursday could be accompanied by thunder, and even Severe Storms! The hope for a Christmas snow is very slowly fading. Next week sees a potential warming trend, and maybe dramatic, as the Western United States Ridge collapses and causes our winds to go southerly.

Summary:

What a difference 24 hours makes! Strong southerly winds and
warm air advection (warm air advancing in our direction) overspread the area this
morning as temperatures rose before sunrise! Tempertures could serious go to above
normal today after they were so far below yesterday! Wednesday will see temps rebound
to the 50s and 60s for many areas and then Thursday rains with possible thunder
as the upper atmosphere is very unstable. There could be severe weather if instability
is able to fire, but, considering the time of the year (Winter began today!) instability
will be very limited. Christmas weekend still looks chilly with highs Friday, Saturday
and Sunday in the 30s and 40s. There are still slight hinting in models that a storm
**COULD** come up the coast and provide parts of the region with snow.. every other
run of the National Weather Service’s favorite model (The GFS) has snow back in
the area or close to us and then the next one does not! If this were to happen
it would be more likely Sunday and not Saturday. Really, the pattern does not support
a good chance of snow, but it does not mean I will not watch for changes! Right
now, early next week we look to warm, maybe some rain Tuesday, and then the next
shot of cooler/colder air would not arrive until 2005! We will see!

Today: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50

Mostly sunny and MUCH warmer!

Wednesday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 48-58

Above Normal Temperatures!

Thursday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Rain! Some Thunder possible!

Friday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 35-45

Cloudy. Temps much colder.

Saturday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35

Cloudy. Cold.

Sunday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40

Cloudy. (will watch for storminess, but not too excited right now.)

Long Term:

Seeing a warm up as the positive PNA pattern breaks down for a while. Could see temps climbe well above normal next week before a cool down around the new year. I can say, recently it has been very tough forecasting long term!

All for now!