11/11 UPDATED: VA/MD./DC Weather outlook


RAINIER LOOK NOW OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COLDER CONITIONS WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY. THEER COULD BE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH! LONGER TERMS WE STILL SEE SOME SIGNS OF POSSIBLE COLDER CONDITIONS, EVEN A POTENTAIL FOR A NEGATIVE NAO AND POSITIVE PNA PATTERN, SO THERE ARE SIGNS THERE.

 

Summary:

Thank you to the Veterans out there who gave for us to be free! I had to update my forecast as it was not accurate so this will supercede the one I sent last night! Rain will not move in until this evening or overnight. The system responsible is rather vigorous and has thunderstorms with it that MAY affect southern Virginia. Despite this the rain shield is pretty impressive and the movement slow enough that decent rains will fall overnight and for much of tomorrow for many. The weekend still looks very cool with Saturday Night having a good shot of being the coldest night of the season for many. There are signs in some models of a linkage of the trough off the east coast and a tropical like low in the Caribbean. As Cosgrove points out in his daily weather column (Available on Weather MatrixÂ?s site which you can get to from a link under the Discussions on the Menu on http://www.midatlanticweather.com) this has a quasi feel of the perfect storm (Link explaining what occurred in the perfect storm: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/satellite/satelliteseye/cyclones/pfctstorm91/pfctstorm.html ) except that storm had a hurricane wrap into it. Also, what this could mean is that the NAO will go negative and a possible shift to a positive NAO pattern could mean a colder shift after next week. We will see!

 

So the Revised forecast:

 

Today:

Clouds on the increase with temps between 55 and 70 degrees.

 

Tonight:

Rain will overtake us and it could be moderate to even heavy at times. Temps will fall into the 43 Â? 55 degree range state wide.

 

Friday:

Rain, more widespread in the morning, and more showery as the day goes on. Temps will pretty much stay where they were at the start of the day.

 

Saturday:

Very cool with highs 45-55 at best state wide, and night time temps could hit 20 degerees in parts of the area, but 25-35 seems like a pretty good bet.

 

Sunday:

Temps slightly moderate to about 5 to 7 degrees warmer than the day before.

 

Next Week:

See temps slowly rise and a possible rain event about Thursday. I will watch to see if the storm system off the East Coast becomes a factor in shifting the NAO to Negative and see if the PNA goes positive. If so, cooler conditions will come back and could stick a bit longer.

 

Of Note. The storm the next 24- 36 hours will provide snows to interior new England and will be their most significant snow so far this season.

 

All for now!

 

 

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