09/01/2004 Thoughts on Frances


First things first. I continue to revamp
www.midatlanticweather.com .. It is becoming a little
overwhelming with links so soon you will see a new
navigation menu! Also, the iFraming and linking should
get better! Please check it out!

Next.. Where will Frances go…

A lot of interest in this storm due to its size and
intensity. This storm is huge! Much bigger than
Charley or Andrew in Areal coverage.. She is on the
size of Floyd or Hugo. This one will devastate a
larger portion of Florida than Charley so point
blank.. the East coast of Florida needs to board up
and get ready to head for higher ground!

I have been asked where and why I think the storm will
land where I think it will!

1. The Bermuda High is strong. the National Hurricane
Center keeps noting that Frances is moving around the
High and that it will weaken. If it weakens at all,
Northern Florida is in for it! But now, I think
Frances will likely hit Between Miami and Vero Beach
(seriously thinking at about Ft. Lauderdale to West
Palm Beach).. Don’t take my word for it, just wanted
to say it! Please stay on guarded watch ALL of FL EAST
COAST! Note.. a large portion of Florida’s east coast
will likely see a Hurricane watch at 11:00 PM EDT

2. I do not see s slowing mechanism in front of
Frances. that slowing is vital for a more northerly
turn.

3. She is still far South, so I just keep having a
hard time with the turn.

Long term.. if she hits Southern FL I am betting she
re-emerges in the Gulf.. if so, Alabama, Mississippi,
and the Florida Panhandle seem the best threat for
another landfall. She will not be in the “Glory” she
is now, but COULD re strengthen and wow, the amount of
money for her will be an unbelievable (Right now
insurance companies already predict close to 20
billion dollars in losses! Remember, Charley and
Andrew were smaller so the widespread damage will be
amazing!)

Will she affect us? Hard to say. I feel she may go
west of the Appalachians, and though we could see some
storms on Monday, we may not get too much…. I am
just pondering, but will try and pin down more later.

All for now!

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Jimmy Chaplin of Mid Atlantic Weather. http://www.midatlanticweather.com
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