01/30 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook


Another weekend, and another bust for me. I am learning though! This week LOOKS bland in many respects, but, like I have said, between Jan 15th and Feb 15th there are many ways that snow can happen, when it looks like no snow is forecasted! This week bears watching, but may end up as bland as it looks! Longer term I see a true return to arctic chill, but an active Southern Branch of the Jet stream will mean chances of winter weather that will ironically threaten southern areas more than Northern.

Summary:

The weekend storm was interesting. Some things I need to learn this year! There is the Global Forecast Model (GFS) and the North American Model (NAM formerly ETA) that are used as the primary weather forecasting models. This winter the NAM has been good, to an extent, on the placement of lows and showing that there will be warm air in the upper levels for possible mixes of precipitation. It has been too warm with its predictions, but should be noted. Its precipitation output has been terrible, but this has not been helped by the GFS, which has been forecasting much colder than the actual storms have been. Next system I will be modifying thoughts from these two and giving some weight to their strengths, but really taking into account their weaknesses! Hopefully this will help!

This week is interesting, though the action may be south, east and then North of our region! First is a southern Storm that will likely be suppressed south in its track due to the Low that went through here this weekend. The low from this weekend will hang out near Bermuda and intensify and possibly move west! Yes.. west! The low to the south will interact with the low near Bermuda and could phase. There is yet another piece of energy in the northern Jet stream that could interact and pull the phased low to the west to hit New England. So a southern low goes south of us (though this needs to be watched) then out to the east it phases and then gets pulled northwestward to affect New England! Wild, but leaves us in the open! But, as I said, this time of year can be tricky so our Southern low will need to be watched for possible Northward movement. There are signs the low could stay near the coast and give us a shot at some precipitation. The Southern areas really need to be on watch, and if the Oceanic Low combo is close enough, the Eastern areas need to be on guard! There could be a huge Gale center that ends up giving the coast quite an erosion problem, as the Low will be moving slowly!

Needless to say, it is exciting in some respects, but may end up giving us the one dry and mild areas on the East Coast!

Longer term, this large Oceanic low may help send a surge of Arctic Air this way making us cold in about 10 days!

So a bland week, with a lot of action all around us! Will we really go unaffected? I will watch and see!

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Forecast:

Today: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 35-45

Milder and sunny!

Tuesday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 35-45

Continued warming! Sunny Skies!

Wednesday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Above normal temperatures!

Thursday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 35-45

Southern Storm Bears Watching! Wintry Mix possible Southwest and Parts of the South. Cloudy to Partly cloudy elsewhere!

Friday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Milder again!

Saturday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 45-55

Milder!

Sunday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Mild!

Long Term:

A turn to colder conditions is likely around Mid Week. Looks like a good chance
of a snowstorm as soon as the cold air arrives.

All for Now!