01/25 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook


Where are we headed? The pattern ahead should be somewhat challenging. I would say we are in an equal opportunity storm pattern. Storms could either be snowy or icy or rain. The split flow will be difficult for the models to handle, not that the models have been all that great. I do see more opportunities for precipitation than has been the case. With the southern branch of the jet stream pumping more sub tropical systems towards our region. I am not seeing a bitter cold sustaining outbreak, but I see the stronger signals of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. If you put this all together I think we run a higher risk of winter storms for the next few weeks. I call this season the height of our winter storm season. To me it runs from about January 15th to about February 15th. What I notice during this time of the year is that the Highs to the north have an interesting ability to seep more cold air into the region than early model runs indicate. This may the case this weekend as a low appears to form along the coast and possibly ride up the coast if the NAO goes and stays negative. Summary: This time of year has more wintry storms that do not look wintry on models until they get closer. Reality may be that the storms are rain. Just some thoughts

Summary: Warmer air is invading the region and will moderate temperatures today and especially tomorrow. Cannot rule out a shower of  rain or snow overnight. Nothing like yesterday’s surprise snow squall! Colder air invaded Thursday and Thursday night could be one of the coldest of the season as cold air comes sliding off a New England snow pack! Interesting things could be here Sunday as “Stale” cold air and a potential southern/coastal storm appear to come this way.

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Forecast:

Today: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 35-45
Moderating temperatures! Cloudy skies. A brief rain or snow shower possible tonight.

Wednesday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55
Above normal temperatures!

Thursday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35
Much colder! Thursday night may be the coldest of the season.

Friday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35
Partly Cloudy

Saturday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40 (temps could be adjusted downwards)
Some cloudiness.

Sunday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35
Wintry mix, snow, and or rain.

Monday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35
Wintry mix, snow, and or rain.
 
Long Term:
This weekend system will need to be watched. Temps look seasonal next week.
       
All for now!