11/12 2005-2006 Winter Outlook

 

I will make this more formal soon!

 

I am on board with a normal to slightly above normal winter. However, the SST’s off the east coast and in the Gulf I think will (and have already proven to do so) aid to very moist storms up the East Coast. With that in mind, in the brief colder snaps (I think most will last for about a week.if not briefer. like we have seen) I see very energetic storms forming with abilities for Severe weather in the Southeast and also strong Nor’easters. So, if cold enough, the storms that do occur should have great potential for large amounts of precip and of course Snow! So, snow should be above normal in the Piedmont and interior Upper Mid Atlantic (VA, MD, PA, NJ) and New england, with coastal plains dealing with a lot of turnover or mix scenarios.. not surprising, as strong storms should throw warm air off the oceans inland.. and with warmer sea temps, this does not look good for areas east of I-95 in the Mid Atlantic in general.

Restating: Brief cold snaps and large storms.. a few storms should make above normal snow piedmont and higher elevations of the Mid Atlantic, and also in interior New England. Normal to slightly above normal temperatures overall.

Factors considered:
Slow Snow cover expansion in Canada (Just a trend I am watching)
Cold pool off Pacific NW Coast (Not good)
Warmer waters (at least for now) off East (Strengthens East Coast Storms)
Weather trends seen this fall. (Drought buster and Tropical systems)
ENSO.. Not a factor this year
Not a big analog person as I have seen this hurt some forecasts dramatically! (Last year comes to mind)
And yes.. the watch of other meteorologist’s predictions. (Helps confirm or challenge my thinking)

 

That is it. I will make it more fromal soon!