Weather Outlook – Strong Storm Coming #midatlwx

Mid Atlantic Weather outlook for the DC, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina Areas

A few showers were around this morning and areas right along the coast may have some showers today. We will see temps seasonably cool or just a bit below normal. Good radiational cooling will set up tonight so Frost and Freeze advisories have been posted pretty much, west of I-95. Temps will dip into the 30s for most (20s even in the Mountains where the growing season is over) –

Warmer conditions Tomorrow and Saturday with highs into the 60s and some 70s south. Increasing clouds and showers and rain will be making its way from west to east through the day. Overnight Saturday and Sunday there will be a period of rain, some heavy. Winds will increase and temperatures will be dropping through the day. Highs may be low 60s east after Midnight but in general, 50s east and even 40s west. Far western areas (mountains) will see rain change to some snow and it will accumulate in the higher elevations!

Winds and clouds will keep temperatures from getting too cold Sunday night and cool weather Monday with highs in the low 50s west and near 60 far south Monday.

Long range looks like it will warm up some after this cold shot as the real cold air is now looking to be in the west and not the east. We will see.. very volatile time of year in long range forecasting!

Rain Projection from Weather Prediction Center:

Long Range Temperature Outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center:

Long Range Temperature Outlooks

Long Range Temperature Outlooks

 


QUICK – Weather Outlook October 25, 2017 #midatlwx

Mid Atlantic Weather outlook for the DC, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina Areas

Cooler conditions today region-wide.  Highs in the 60s and little breezy.

The cooler temperatures will continue tomorrow.

Warmer temperatures (the upper 60s and 70s) Friday and Saturday.

A complex weather situation sets up Sunday as cooler air is ushered in by a front and this could all combine to cause a big storm in the Northeast! Windy and cooler conditions to follow. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be low to mid-50s in the North and far west. In the Mountains, some snow could fall!

 

More to come later!

 


Weather Outlook October 24, 2017

Mid Atlantic Weather outlook for the DC, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina Areas

The rain has moved very quickly and we should see improving conditions through the day. A lot of severe reported in Southwest VA, Western NC, and SC.

We have a tranquil day, except windy in the mountains.

Cooler air will filter in and highs will go from the 70s today to the 50s west and 60s most everywhere else on Wednesday.  Temperatures will be about the same on Thursday but rebound to the upper 60s and 70s for Friday and Saturday. A much cooler shot will come Sunday with some showers. Highs look mainly in the 50s and lower 60s at best. The mountains should see some Flakes Sunday Night.

Cooler conditions will stick for a while with temps in the 50s – but not super cold. ( From the Climate Prediction Center)

Temp outlook 6 - 10 days

Temp outlook 6 – 10 days

 


Nice Weekend weather – Rain and then Cooler — Colder? #midatlwx

Mid Atlantic Weather outlook for the DC, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina Areas

You cannot ask for better weather for the weekend! Temps will be well into the 70s and maybe even some 80s! Sunny and Nice!

Monday through Wednesday

We will see increasing clouds and rain starting Monday night and lasting into Wednesday. Monday temps will again be in the 70s and low 80s in the south!

Rain totals will be more out in the Mountains and Piedmont of western VA and especially North Carolina.

Here are the rain totals expected next week:

 

Rain Forecast next 7 days

Rain Forecast next 7 days

What about the cooler outlook?

I am noticing two shots of cooler air coming in over the next week. The first shot will really only be seasonable next Thursday. Then colder air next weekend.

There are many indications that after the next 10 days the weather will get very interesting! Much cooler air and storminess.. I am not certain how this will all play out, but snowflakes close by and some more notable cold seems very possible! There is often a correlation to a Typhoon in the Pacific near Japan having an impact on our weather about 10 days later.. this looks pretty certain, but how much of an impact is yet to be seen!

 

 


Mid Atlantic AWESOME WEEKEND WEATHER ALERT! #Midatlwx

Mid Atlantic Weather outlook for the DC, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina Areas

The weather in the Mid Atlantic does not get much better than this! We have had a great stretch of weather, but remain rather dry. This weekend looks great as well with highs in the 70s and even close to 80 for Sunday into Monday for many. So the key is to get out and enjoy it!

And what better thing to do but get out and view the fall colors! Here is a map featured on the Visit Roanoke Web Site for Virginia.

 

Fall Foliage Outlook

Next Week

Rain will start approaching from the west Monday with rain chances Monday Night through Wednesday. By Wednesday the cooler air will start making progress into the area. We need that rain so I am hopeful. Once the cooler conditions set up by next Thursday we will see a drier stretch of weather again. Cooler air will likely stick around for a good 5 to 7 days but I see a return to above normal temperatures by the second week of November.

Mountain snow showers?

Still looks like next Wednesday Night/Thursday some of the higher elevations of the Appalachians could see some light snow showers. Nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year!

My Winter Outlook

Likely will come out by the end of next week. I will be adding many links to the tab over the next week! In general, I am not overly impressed with the prospects for a super cold or snowy winter this year. I will explain why when I post.


Calm week – Changing next week! #Midatlwx

CPC Long Range Outlook

Mid Atlantic Weather outlook for the DC, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina Areas

Weather for the Mid Atlantic is rather easy for the next several days! With High Pressure firmly in place, we will see pleasant afternoons with highs remaining warmer than normal. Daytime temperatures will be in the upper 60s to mid-70s from today through Sunday. Nighttime lows will be in the 40s, but there could be some 50s far south and along the coast, as we head into the weekend, and some 30s in the Mountains tonight. The weather starts changing Monday nationwide, and we will be moving towards cooler air which could have a significant rain event in front of it!

I really could stretch this post, but I will not!

Long Range

I showed you in Yesterday’s Weather Outlook that the cooler air was slowly moving in. Here is today’s updated temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

CPC Long Range Outlook

Tropics – Quiet for now!

It is encouraging to have a break for the Tropics. Please continue to pray for and support Puerto Rico as they are still in very bad shape! Over 80% still missing electricity and the death toll is likely much higher than what we know now, and this could continue to get worse.

As far as outlooks, if fronts stall in the Gulf region we will need to watch for potential tropical developments in the next 2 weeks. Not saying it will happen, but some chances for increased activity has shown on some models.

For now, they are quiet and this map from the National Hurricane Center is good to see!

5 Day Tropical Outlook

 


Mid Atlantic Weather Outlook: NICE WEEK! Long Range Looks Changeable! #Midatlwx

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

The Mid Atlantic Weather Outlook for Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, and North Carolina

For the Mid Atlantic, the weather looks cool to start days but the week will end up being very nice. Temps will be in the 60s today with 70s returning tomorrow! Temps will stay in the 70s straight through the weekend with lows tonight in the 30s North and West and 40s elsewhere. Frost and maybe some far Western freezing temperatures are likely again tonight! Night temps will stay in the 40s and lower 50s the rest of the week through Sunday! Temps will be the warmest Sunday where a few 80s may appear in the far south (NC) areas.

We look cool to start the week and then very very nice. Temps will be in the 60s today with 70s returning tomorrow! Temps will stay in the 70s straight through the weekend with lows tonight in the 30s North and West and 40s elsewhere. Frost and maybe some far Western freezing temperatures are likely again tonight! Night temps will stay in the 40s and lower 50s the rest of the week through Sunday! Temps will be the warmest Sunday where a few 80s may appear in the far south (NC) areas.

We look cool to start the week and then very very nice. Temps will be in the 60s today with 70s returning tomorrow! Temps will stay in the 70s straight through the weekend with lows tonight in the 30s North and West and 40s elsewhere. Frost and maybe some far Western freezing temperatures are likely again tonight! Night temps will stay in the 40s and lower 50s the rest of the week through Sunday! Temps will be the warmest Sunday where a few 80s may appear in the far south (NC) areas.

Next Monday will feature a chance of showers.

Long range

It still looks like a chance for a very cool snap and MAYBE even some WV and Far Western MD snow showers! That colder snap will likely have a nice rainstorm to usher it in!

The graphic here is an average for the 8-14 day period from the Climate Prediction Center, but the below average temperatures will really start showing up around the 29th so the cold has not offset the warmth yet – you see it approaching from the West. This should show below normal soon!

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook for the Mid Atlantic Region

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook for the Mid Atlantic

 

What about the Mid Atlantic Winter Weather Outlooks?

I am compiling my reasoning for my outlook and will share this soon.  Meanwhile, I will be posting more Winter Outlooks to the Tab soon!




How much rain from Nate? #midatlwx #vawx #wvwx #ncwx #scwx

Where you are will obviously make all the difference in how much rain you will get. The track of me could bring it west of the mountains a little bit further which means Far Eastern regions in Southeastern Virginia as well as the Eastern Shore may not get as much. As of now I would put I-81 and Westward to see two to three inches of rain for the hire of slopes of Southwest Virginia and Western North Carolina, I could see a five to seven inch rain being very common. Once you get to the higher terrain there could be a few 7 or 8 inch totals. What may take some by surprise are localized very heavy rain storms, which is very typical and tropical systems since so much moisture is put into the air. Because of this as I pointed out in my YouTube post earlier the region does have a slight two marginal risk for flooding rains. I believe that these areas will be more isolated until you get to the mountains of Southwest Virginia, Western North Carolina Western South Carolina, and Georgia. Additionally, thunderstorms could actually be possible and areas along I-95 and I cannot rule out isolated severe threats since the winds Aloft will be pretty strong so a strong storm could bring those windd to the ground.