Better north, Rain in NC – Storms return Monday #midatlwx

The weather is a lot better today, depending on where you are. Everyone North of the front is experiencing pleasant weather and lower humidity. However, people in far Southeast Virginia down into North Carolina and South Carolina are still seeing a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. That front will remain hung up in North Carolina and especially areas to the east could see excessive rainfall. Another front should push into the area Monday and provide another chance for showers and thunderstorms. There will also be a chance for some severe storms Monday as the front passes through. Temperatures will remain in the mid and upper 80s North of the front and around 90 South of the front over the next 2 days, and then 90s more prominent area wide Monday. Temperatures will continue to be in the upper 80s and low 90s through the remainder of next week. For Friday of next week, a front could be approaching the north and bring another chance of showers and Thunder storms. If this front is to make it through parts of the area it could bring cooler conditions.  I suspect that front will be hung in North Carolina area and will retreat to the north and bring warmer temperatures, but possibly giving Virginia a pleasant Saturday and Sunday later. Depending on where that front gets hung up it could bring showers and storms including heavy rains. Additionally, that front seems to be a focus for more severe weather. We will have to wait and see!

Monday Severe Outlook


Severe Threat – Remains hot! #midatlwx

Heads up to continued heat today and possible severe weather. See the Severe Storms Prediction center outline for severe below. The front makes it into southern Virginia tomorrow which will continue the threat for showers and storms for the southern third of VA down into NC.. it then is in NC Sunday. Temps will come down in the areas under clouds and north of the front. North of the front, a noticeable drop in humidity. Heat is not really going away and 90s will return next week for anyone seeing upper 80s this weekend (except the mountains of course!).

Watch for the severe today! Very heavy rains may also cause flash flooding. Heavy winds and small hail would be the biggest threat from the storms today!


Hot through the Fourth – Storminess, Cooler and the Tropics -#midatlwx

The lower humidity yesterday for most of Virginia, DC, MD, PA will slowly lose in the next day. We also have a disturbance that could fire some severe into PA. Today looks hot. Highs again into the 90s along I-95 and a typical chance of Thunderstorms. The front will advance southward and pass the region tomorrow before getting hung up as a stationary front. That front will be the focus of chances of showers and storms through the rest of the week. That stall could really make it wet for southern VA and especially eastern NC and SC! Temps will remain at or slightly above normal south of the front and humid. Along and north of the front, there will be better temps in the mid-80s and plenty of moisture and humidity. Another front will be coming through Saturday and this one looks like it will push a much cooler air mass into the area. Things start to clear to Sunday, humidity drops and nice temperatures follow! for a while. Another reinforcement of nice air could hit next week as well. The pattern really changed in the long range from the way it looks last week! There is a really strong chance of a Tropical System and we will be watching this into the next week.

Forecast Next three days with fronts.

 

Next Three Days!

 


The heat is a coming! #midatlwx

The song from Les Miserables came to mind – at least one little part – One Day More! Of the nice weather in this case! Not that tomorrow will be super humid everywhere, but temps will go from these crazy comfortable, and, in the case of some mountainous locations last night, cold conditions, to much more typical summer heat and actually above normal! Temps, east of the mountains, will climb close to 90 tomorrow. That story will repeat Friday through the weekend and straight to the 4th! And with that heat – a daily chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms starting Friday. A better chance of showers and Storms will be Saturday Afternoon and overnight in the north. Mor isolated chances Sunday and Monday.

THE FOURTH

Looks HOT and Humid! Highs will stay about the same.. Although there is a chance of temps into the mid-90s according to some models! Needless to say, water drinking, light clothing, and lots of sunscreen will be needed!

Check out my new Speculation Page! http://midatlanticweather.com/speculation-627

Long range remains hot looking and above normal in Precip!

 


Refreshing air gives way to summer conditions later this week #midatlwx

You cannot ask for better temperatures about your experiencing today over the next several days. The forecast for today will show highs around 80 in the North, the 70s in the mountains, and low to mid-80s elsewhere.  The real exciting part of this forecast is a low humidity. You cannot ask for better summer weather. Tomorrow a disturbance will come through and could spark showers and thunderstorms but they will be widely scattered. This disturbance will reinforce the cool air for one more day. With a high drifting eastward a southerly flow will push temperatures up to around 90 by Thursday. A chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms returns Friday and that should continue into the weekend. So after the cool start to the week, we will see a return to typical summer weather by next weekend. The long-range forecast shows a continuation of at or above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.

6 to 10 day map

6 to 10 day Temp Outlook probability of above normal temperatures by the Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/

8 to 14 Day Temp Outlook

8 to 14 day Temp Outlook probability of above normal temperatures by the Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/


First Call – February 9 snow

Rain will begin this evening and change to snow overnight. The sooner the flip, the more the snow. The ground is warm so expect melting and snow to only accumulate on grassy areas, cars, and trees… during the heavier snow it will accumulate some on roads.. as temps fall roads will cover in areas that are receiving more than 3 inches of snow. Snow will be very heavy with wind and possible Thunder! Snow will end by early afternoon for VA and in the evening for New Jersey! Some spots in New Jersey will likely get upwards of a foot of snow and see close to 15 inches, especially in the higher elevations. If colder air is able to sink further south sooner than it looks now, areas around DC and Northern VA may deal with a heavier accumulation. The opposite is also true!


Wet/windy/Wet snow? Colder by next weekend – no real snow threats! #Midatlwx

Sorry I have so quiet on the weather side of things. The storm in the South is headed this way and severe wetaher is likely in the Carolinas, especially South Carolina! We could get some downpours and area wide it looks like 1 to 2 inches of rain is possible. When it is raining heavy it will be windy, especially along the coast! Of note, we have the upper levels of this system passing right over top part of the area. IN WINTER, when that happens, there could be some surprising very wet snow mixed in for a while, but do not count on it really outside of the mountains and with it so warm, accumulations would be smaller! This milder period will continue until later next week when we look like we get colder. AS OF NOW, I am thinking cold and dry conditions for the week after next. Winter weather does not look likely with this colder stretch which is disconcerting for Northern VA and MD that has been missed by most snow this year! Last year, on this date, the BIG ONE hit and that was all we needed to have above normal snow for many areas! Expect wet conditions to continue and heavy showers later this evening into tomorrow. In heaviest of the precipitation, we will see some gusty winds. Southeastern VA and NC, an especially SC, need to be very weather aware over the next 24 hours as severe is a possibility. IF things get really heavy when the upper-level system pulls through, a period of mixed rain and snow is not out of the question for the northern VA/MD and Mountain areas, but I would not count on this! Things clear on Tuesday and by next Saturday we are in the 30s and 40s again! If you know people in the Southeast from South Carolina to the Northern part of Florida, tell them to take this severe threat very seriously! Tornadoes are very likely and these will be the more intense and long-lived type!


Cold then much milder – How long will we stay mild? #midatlwx

Yes it is super cold! We had below zero temps due to that deep snowpack down in Southeastern Virginia. Temps will remain cold today, but improvement is coming. We mild up about 10 to 15 degrees tomorrow and then more the next with rain coming. Some freezing rain is likely in some of the Valleys Tuesday but the rain coming will warm the region and start the real melt. This milder pattern keeps going and getting to possibly 70s in the NC and MAYBE even southern Virginia Saturday. A front will approach next weekend and could both knock temps back some and cause a little frozen in the far Northern and Northwestern areas. I would not bet on any snow, but there was some interesting looks to the long range models.

What I would say is that, if you are a snow lover, the long range does not look good for potentially weeks. Now, I thought this before and some changes missed by the models initially came to pass. We are heading into the best climatological time for snow so I cannot think we do not have some things that are missed in models, but climate and reality are not the same necessarily. The anomalous pattern could bring record warmth too!

Summary:

Warming after tomorrow

Rain Tuesday may have mixed freezing rain in Northwestern VA and Valleys

Warming by next weekend will mean 50s north and 70s south.

Maybe a little snow or something in the north next Sunday, but bet on rain for now.

Longer range looks way above normal on temperatures.