Nice Weekend weather – Rain and then Cooler — Colder? #midatlwx

Mid Atlantic Weather outlook for the DC, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina Areas

You cannot ask for better weather for the weekend! Temps will be well into the 70s and maybe even some 80s! Sunny and Nice!

Monday through Wednesday

We will see increasing clouds and rain starting Monday night and lasting into Wednesday. Monday temps will again be in the 70s and low 80s in the south!

Rain totals will be more out in the Mountains and Piedmont of western VA and especially North Carolina.

Here are the rain totals expected next week:

 

Rain Forecast next 7 days

Rain Forecast next 7 days

What about the cooler outlook?

I am noticing two shots of cooler air coming in over the next week. The first shot will really only be seasonable next Thursday. Then colder air next weekend.

There are many indications that after the next 10 days the weather will get very interesting! Much cooler air and storminess.. I am not certain how this will all play out, but snowflakes close by and some more notable cold seems very possible! There is often a correlation to a Typhoon in the Pacific near Japan having an impact on our weather about 10 days later.. this looks pretty certain, but how much of an impact is yet to be seen!

 

 


Mid Atlantic AWESOME WEEKEND WEATHER ALERT! #Midatlwx

Mid Atlantic Weather outlook for the DC, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina Areas

The weather in the Mid Atlantic does not get much better than this! We have had a great stretch of weather, but remain rather dry. This weekend looks great as well with highs in the 70s and even close to 80 for Sunday into Monday for many. So the key is to get out and enjoy it!

And what better thing to do but get out and view the fall colors! Here is a map featured on the Visit Roanoke Web Site for Virginia.

 

Fall Foliage Outlook

Next Week

Rain will start approaching from the west Monday with rain chances Monday Night through Wednesday. By Wednesday the cooler air will start making progress into the area. We need that rain so I am hopeful. Once the cooler conditions set up by next Thursday we will see a drier stretch of weather again. Cooler air will likely stick around for a good 5 to 7 days but I see a return to above normal temperatures by the second week of November.

Mountain snow showers?

Still looks like next Wednesday Night/Thursday some of the higher elevations of the Appalachians could see some light snow showers. Nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year!

My Winter Outlook

Likely will come out by the end of next week. I will be adding many links to the tab over the next week! In general, I am not overly impressed with the prospects for a super cold or snowy winter this year. I will explain why when I post.


Calm week – Changing next week! #Midatlwx

CPC Long Range Outlook

Mid Atlantic Weather outlook for the DC, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina Areas

Weather for the Mid Atlantic is rather easy for the next several days! With High Pressure firmly in place, we will see pleasant afternoons with highs remaining warmer than normal. Daytime temperatures will be in the upper 60s to mid-70s from today through Sunday. Nighttime lows will be in the 40s, but there could be some 50s far south and along the coast, as we head into the weekend, and some 30s in the Mountains tonight. The weather starts changing Monday nationwide, and we will be moving towards cooler air which could have a significant rain event in front of it!

I really could stretch this post, but I will not!

Long Range

I showed you in Yesterday’s Weather Outlook that the cooler air was slowly moving in. Here is today’s updated temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

CPC Long Range Outlook

Tropics – Quiet for now!

It is encouraging to have a break for the Tropics. Please continue to pray for and support Puerto Rico as they are still in very bad shape! Over 80% still missing electricity and the death toll is likely much higher than what we know now, and this could continue to get worse.

As far as outlooks, if fronts stall in the Gulf region we will need to watch for potential tropical developments in the next 2 weeks. Not saying it will happen, but some chances for increased activity has shown on some models.

For now, they are quiet and this map from the National Hurricane Center is good to see!

5 Day Tropical Outlook

 


Mid Atlantic Weather Outlook: NICE WEEK! Long Range Looks Changeable! #Midatlwx

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

The Mid Atlantic Weather Outlook for Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, and North Carolina

For the Mid Atlantic, the weather looks cool to start days but the week will end up being very nice. Temps will be in the 60s today with 70s returning tomorrow! Temps will stay in the 70s straight through the weekend with lows tonight in the 30s North and West and 40s elsewhere. Frost and maybe some far Western freezing temperatures are likely again tonight! Night temps will stay in the 40s and lower 50s the rest of the week through Sunday! Temps will be the warmest Sunday where a few 80s may appear in the far south (NC) areas.

We look cool to start the week and then very very nice. Temps will be in the 60s today with 70s returning tomorrow! Temps will stay in the 70s straight through the weekend with lows tonight in the 30s North and West and 40s elsewhere. Frost and maybe some far Western freezing temperatures are likely again tonight! Night temps will stay in the 40s and lower 50s the rest of the week through Sunday! Temps will be the warmest Sunday where a few 80s may appear in the far south (NC) areas.

We look cool to start the week and then very very nice. Temps will be in the 60s today with 70s returning tomorrow! Temps will stay in the 70s straight through the weekend with lows tonight in the 30s North and West and 40s elsewhere. Frost and maybe some far Western freezing temperatures are likely again tonight! Night temps will stay in the 40s and lower 50s the rest of the week through Sunday! Temps will be the warmest Sunday where a few 80s may appear in the far south (NC) areas.

Next Monday will feature a chance of showers.

Long range

It still looks like a chance for a very cool snap and MAYBE even some WV and Far Western MD snow showers! That colder snap will likely have a nice rainstorm to usher it in!

The graphic here is an average for the 8-14 day period from the Climate Prediction Center, but the below average temperatures will really start showing up around the 29th so the cold has not offset the warmth yet – you see it approaching from the West. This should show below normal soon!

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook for the Mid Atlantic Region

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook for the Mid Atlantic

 

What about the Mid Atlantic Winter Weather Outlooks?

I am compiling my reasoning for my outlook and will share this soon.  Meanwhile, I will be posting more Winter Outlooks to the Tab soon!




How much rain from Nate? #midatlwx #vawx #wvwx #ncwx #scwx

Where you are will obviously make all the difference in how much rain you will get. The track of me could bring it west of the mountains a little bit further which means Far Eastern regions in Southeastern Virginia as well as the Eastern Shore may not get as much. As of now I would put I-81 and Westward to see two to three inches of rain for the hire of slopes of Southwest Virginia and Western North Carolina, I could see a five to seven inch rain being very common. Once you get to the higher terrain there could be a few 7 or 8 inch totals. What may take some by surprise are localized very heavy rain storms, which is very typical and tropical systems since so much moisture is put into the air. Because of this as I pointed out in my YouTube post earlier the region does have a slight two marginal risk for flooding rains. I believe that these areas will be more isolated until you get to the mountains of Southwest Virginia, Western North Carolina Western South Carolina, and Georgia. Additionally, thunderstorms could actually be possible and areas along I-95 and I cannot rule out isolated severe threats since the winds Aloft will be pretty strong so a strong storm could bring those windd to the ground.


Showers and storms today – MUCH cooler trends!

A front approaches the region today with a chance of showers and storms increasing all day. Some storms could be severe in the north so please be safe and the biggest threat will be high winds, but an isolated tornado and hail threat exists.

Cool and rainy weather with waves of showers and some storms tonight through most of tomorrow, though western regions should see fewer chances as the day continues. Highs in the 60s and low to the mid-70s north, 80s south.  A good slug of rain will hit part of the regions and isolated flooding could occur in West Virginia today and tonight and into Southeastern VA and Northeastern NC tomorrow.

The weekend still looks sunny and unseasonably cool with highs in the 60s north to around 80 south! Some 40s in the north and 50s to low 60s for lows!

Monday and Tuesday will likely be the time the remnants of Irma start to influence the region’s weather.

All for now:


#Irma Threatens Florida – Stronger now than originally forecast at this point!

For the latest on Irma please stay connected to the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center. As of now, Florida, especially Southern Florida, looks to be ground zero for this system, with maybe even a double hit or a Western Florida hit as she (if she) hooks to the north. She stayed south of many predictions which is why the Southeast Coast (Ga/SC/NC) is less likely to see a direct hit, though surf will be high! Regionally, Next Monday and Tuesday we will see how rains will come this way, but the system will have lost a lot of punch by then.

PRAY FOR FLORIDA, The Leeward Islands, and Puerto Rico as well as all that will be impacted! Irma is very strong and large and actually stronger right now than models had her at this point! 150mph winds! 

UPDATE: #Irma is now a Category 5 Storm with winds at 175mph as of 8:00 AM Tuesday, September 5, 2017


Nice Labor day – Warm day and then cooler air on the way! #midatlwx

Today looks nice and sunny. Highs in the 80s! Warmer tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s south with mid and upper 80s north. Increased chances of showers and storms as strong cold front approaches. This front will bring a rainy Wednesday as well and slowly clear Thursday. Temps in the north will be only in the 60s Wednesday and low 80s in the south. This front clears the area and sets up a nice weekend with temps near 70 in the north and the low 80s in the south! Coastal areas of North and South Carolina will see an increased chance of showers and storms Saturday night and Sunday.

Eyes then turn to Irma and what she will do in the long range! Surf along the coast is likely to get rough Sunday and beyond!


Thoughts on #Irma

She remains a threat to the Southeastern United States Coast.

Talk about changes in models! WOW! The latest MODELS show Irma may impact Florida or even a Southern Florida! The system that was being forecasted to help it come north may miss it and another system may finally help it come north!! So many reminders of why long range forecasting for such systems is really unreliable past five days! So even what I am sharing now will likely adjust. Anyone from Florida to the Carolinas should keep monitoring and I do not care what my gut call or feelings are, they cannot be trusted! LOL! WHAT I CAN SAY is that anyone from Florida to the Carolinas should get some supplies. Water is already going off shelves and that should continue. You have a chance still to order from Amazon or other services as well! About all that I can say so far today so far!

AT THIS POINT do not trust anyone with definite forecasts! Also, I think Irma will be very strong no matter what and have an impact on regions, but some models show a ridiculous strength Hurricane and this is not likely! WHICH regions will be impacted exactly, when, and how strong are all debatable. I would say, that there is a strong leaning towards at least coastal impacts from Florida to the Mid Atlantic, and a higher than normal chance of a landfall (or even multiple with Florida and maybe again in the Carolinas!) but WE JUST DO NOT KNOW YET!

NWS Miami put out this list: