It is hard to imagine the amount of rain that has already fallen in parts of the Houston area and more rain is on the way. Devastating, heart-wrenching, catastrophic.. just I cannot express how terrible I feel after reading tweets and Facebook posts of people in the storm! Please Pray for Texas and then look for practical ways to help, money or otherwise. Days, weeks, and years will be needed for people to recover. This is Houston’s Katrina.
For our weather, a stalled out front along the East Coast will pick up a tropical system near Florida and ride up along the coast. Rain from the storm could be several inches along the coast. Due to easily winds and rough water, rip currents are already a problem so please heed lifeguards and be very safe. Heavy rain and gusty winds will mainly be confined to coastal areas. Elsewhere the easterly fetch and a low-pressure coming up the coast should increase the chance of rain over the next several days. Very cool conditions for this time a year with highs struggling to reach 70° in northern areas and in the low and mid-70s to the South on Monday. Temperatures will increase slightly through the week and will reach 80 in the north by Thursday. As of now, drier air will start to push into the region Thursday and this could set up a very nice weekend.
Longer-term a chance exists for a front any coastal low sometime in the first week of September. There is a chance that this could bring much cooler air into the region sometime late that first week. Since this is so far out I would not plan on it yet but it is something I wanted to share
The rest of the week looks nice, although a couple of showers do look possible Friday as the front comes through, in general, dry and a little below normal temps in the 60s and 70s will be the rule. After the front clears the area Friday night, cooler temps with highs only in the 50s to low and mid-60s will be the forecast Saturday, Sunday, and Monday! The cold Saturday night and Sunday will bring frost and freezes to the mountains, foothills, and Piedmont areas.
Dry weather looks to dominate the weather in the longer term, but after the cold shot, warmer conditions seem likely to return with seasonal to slightly above seasonal levels!
Below are the National Weather Service’s forecast for lows overnight Saturday.
STILL Monitor the weather as there are many things that can change! Models are showing a more easterly component to the Hurricane!
So Joaquin is super strong! Could be a Category 4 at the moment based on the latest Hurricane Hunter readings! That strength does make him a force to be watched, but also systems this this do not get as easily grabbed by troughs.. and I think we see this. The European Model has been insistent that this system stays east of the East Coast and I am starting to believe it! Other models are ALSO seeing this now and you can see the National Hurricane Center’s shift to the east! This is really good news! We did not want to have something like this on the coast. Pray for people in the Bahamas as the storm is really powerful. UNTIL this system does get kicked out to sea, we have to monitor as the cone of uncertainty still has landfall possible. THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL UNDETERMINED, SO STAY POSTED!
A phenomena that has been hard to pinpoint in this upcoming system is something called a PER. This is a “tongue” of moisture (it is more complex than that, but just for simplicity sake) that is aided by a tropical system that can combine with other systems and drop large amounts of rain. You can see that the placement of this moisture has shifted all the way down to South Carolina. They could see 8 to 12 inches of rain. Drought conditions will be or have been wiped out by all of the rains! Due to the upper-level system and a low pressure developing along it, rains for Virginia will be the southern half with 3 to 6 inches of rain. Then NC could see 4 to 7 inches. Flooding concerns remain high and pockets of areas, especially western parts of these states could see 10 inches or more.
THINGS COULD CHANGE – but this is best I can read at this time.
Please be careful, do not drive through flooded regions, and pay attention to OFFICIAL NEWS and Weather outlets for the latest watches and warning!
Small updates after noon forecast model runs!
Special props to DT @Wxrisk for seeing this model trend a while back.
For the next 24 hours, rains will be in the half to 2-inch range for most.. that is in addition to what has fallen today. PLEASE NOTE that some models are bringing heavy rains into northern VA (~4 inches in some areas) this evening! SW VA is dealing with some flooding and other pockets of flooding are possible in the immediate Piedmont and higher elevation areas of Virginia! Areas of the higher elevations of Northern VA, MD, and PA could see 2 to 4 inches of rain which is why flood watches are there and even were expanded some this afternoon! To see the rainfall forecast click here.
The forecast is all muddy for the weekend! Consensus is there on models that heavy rains appear to be heading for the area this weekend. some models point to as much as 10 inches or more of rain in areas. This is a convoluted set up that could involve a tropical system or just be an eventual strong Nor’easter… the final solution is very hard to pin down. I would check the gutters and clear drains to make sure things are working as well as test the sump pump if you have not done so in a while.. All for now..
Starting today temps will warm up well above freeing! Temps should top out in the 40s! Time for some melting! Tomorrow we warm even more so that upper 40s to even upper 50s in the south.
Things become more tricky based on a frontal passage that will occur sometime between Sunday and Monday – How soon that front moves through and a system develops along it will have a lot to do with the precipitation that does fall and what form it takes. I am feeling NORTHERN VA and MD are in the best spots for snow, but there are solutions north of this bringing rain to VA and snow to PA/MD, as well as system south. The timing is all important, and, even at this shorter time frame, is hard to pinpoint. More after mid day models!
AND we have a new day and things are not so clear as models are changing!
Today remains the same! WET and up to 1 to 2 inches of rain is still probable.
Monday night and Tuesday – the signal for snow is there and I still think some will fly, but amounts look light and location is still a bit of a challenge.
Thursday – ???? Changes on the models make this look a bit more rainy than snowy! We could see snow, but I would be stronger thinking that Northern VA, MD and north have a better shot at this than south! We will see! I am not so confident at this point on anything, but the snow threat is lessened.
Brutal cold – MAY still be very cold Friday, not so certain of the severe arctic cold. Will also monitor.