Remember back when I said October would likely be a cold one? It was based on some correlations that were showing in the models way back! AND guess what? It looks like it is gonna get colder! Below normal temps will arrive this weekend. Colder pattern will get reinforced next week and even some Mts could see some flurries if the second cold shot is strong enough! We will see! Just looks like the pattern is gonna amplify! It was only a matter of time.. this will not be the normal cool either - below normal temps.. Is it a sign for winter? Honestly, I am not fond of colder than normal Octobers. They have been a real false alarm for cold winter. Actually, if we get significant snow in October in areas close by, that can be a bad sign. We will see - I AM NOT forecasting that to set up BTW! What I will watch is how the snow advances south from the Arctic. We want a slow steady march south.
Rain today will mainly be the southern half of VA into NC and SC. Temps in the 70s for most of us. The rain will make it further than I thought at one point yesterday, but most of Northern VA and MD will see only spotty showers at best. Lower southern MD and the Shenandoah could see a few more showers than that (and have!) - Cool fall shot looks on tap this weekend!
Continuing to see good evidence of a snowy and colder than normal winter! This video breaks down most ALL of the items I have been watching! Worth a watch. Though crude and often emotionally charged, DT at Wxrisk.com is one of the best long range forecasters I have followed. He is rather crude and his passion comes out in a lot of what he does so take that as a word of caution if you follow him! HE hates being wrong.. but admits it. He also hates when people rub the fact he was wrong or incorrect about something but have no idea why! JUST WARNING you so you are not shocked if you read what is on his page! And, he really does struggle on short term forecasts on snow.. but not much more than others. This I can tell you, he is the blood hound of Mid Atlantic snow threats based on patterns! He can see them sooner than most and is usually correct that the pattern could produce a snow in the long term when winter is here. I would call him the best meteorologist in the industry for long range winter weather pattern recognition in the Mid Atlantic. OK - his video - very technical - the summary - pattern looks good if all continues this way we could see a cold and snowy winter in the east! That does not guarantee it because things can change, but all factors are favorable for a cold and snowy pattern! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ag35JKa9-20
Some interesting information on upslope enhancement of snow.
Mobile Uploads Brushing up on some stuff as we head into winter, came across this map. This highlights the typical NW upslope favored spots. Can remember living in Bluefield in 09 during upslope events it would snow for days. Drive twenty miles any direction it seemed and things were significantly better.
Won't be long before our first upslope event, has happened before Halloween for the past 3 years!