My technical forecast discussion is up for premium subscribers at wxsouth.com in the Analytics menu. This is a doozy of a system and I'm watching the trends of the Upper system, as each run of the models dig it more south and west. This means a lot for the East Coast, from northeast North Carolina, up the East Coast as I think the European is in the ballpark here with an Historic Storm in the making. Some 3 to 4" snow rates PER HOUR are possible at the height of the storm in New Jersey, Long Island, New York City and possibly wild snows as far south as the Chesapeake. For the South, I think the upper low coming through Missouri could close off more than show, head toward Northern Georgia or western Carolinas early Monday morning, before reaching the coast, so for the Carolinas Monday and Monday Night is tricky, even Tuesday if wrap around bands of moisture pinwheel in-but the models are all too warm for snow in the Piedmont until very late Monday. For eastern Va and northeast NC, thats where the storm will be close to developing and bombing out....any further west at all, and things change DRASTICALLY in eastern Virginia, with a super tight gradient from Trace of Snow to several Inches of snow. Tennessee Valley, the upper system will bring snow showers, and there could be a decent period in middle and eastern TN where it accumulates tomorrow night late and early Monday. The mountains of TN, VA, NC will do very well through Tuesday in Snow Showers. Very complicated forecast for many, because of the fast nature of the changing dynamics as we speak. All in all, here's a rough idea at this time:
Next Up--- A Major Northeast Snowstorm ! But I'm carefully watching just how far south that energy travels, before cutting up the East Coast. Small but strong systems like this that dive across the Mountain chain can spin up Meso scale smaller systems, within the larger system. Once again, it will get complicated, but there will indeed be (some ) snow east of the mountains in NC, VA as well, and the coast of northeast NC, eastern VA actually has a chance at accumulating snow. Its too early to say how much, from flurries to "soemthing else" . Its' going to be close Monday, between just clipping and actually bombing out just enough to throw snow back onshore. This will be a big Snow dumper in coastal New England, and could reach further south and west than current forecasts show. Each run of the models deepens this more and more, and pushes it further west. If you have travel plans to New Jersey, New York City and northeast of there from Tuesday onward, you must follow this one because it has tremendous potential as a strong Nor'easter. Short Range Upper energy that will cause the storm along the East Coast valid overnight:
US National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
***Winter Weather Advisory***Winter Weather Advisories go into effect tomorrow at 10am for the New River Valley, Mountain Empire, and northwest North Carolina, and 4pm tomorrow for the Roanoke Valley, Alleghany Highlands, and the Greenbrier Valley. A mixed bag of precipitation will occur throughout the day. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain are expected. Generally less than 2 inches of snow/sleet are expected, with 2-6 inches possible across the Greenbrier Valley and Alleghany Highlands. The greatest icing potential from freezing rain will be along the Blue Ridge where as much as two tenths of ice is possible. Stay tuned to www.weather.gov/rnk for updates throughout the night.
First flight attempted in the snow. Didn't want to stay up too long; water is bad for electronics. 01-21-2015, 10:45AM. Temp: 29F, Winds: Light and variable
January 21, 1985: If you're old enough to remember 30 years ago, this morning was about the coldest airmass on record in the United States, especially the Southeast. This is just a snapshot at 7 AM EST....not the actual lows necessarily. Look at Knoxville at that hour , that is 23 BELOW ZERO Actual temps, not Wind Chill. Nashville went to 27 below zero...subzero reached Georgia, Alabama,the Carolinas. I recall walking across a totall frozen stream in my parents backyard.