Gonna get quite wet with waves of rain the next 3 days. 1 to 2 inches of rain looks common with areas of SW VA and Western NC seeing upwards of 3 inches in spots which prompted flood watches to these very wet areas! Clearing should take place during the day Wednesday and then seasonable temperatures will be in place the rest of the week and into the weekend. This means highs around 50 in the North and in the mid and upper 50s southern areas.
So when may it get wintry?
There are hints of a pattern change around or after the 15th, but I saw hints to a pattern change for this week. I do think we saw a pattern change taking place this week, but the progression of change is looking SLOWER than models were originally showing! This will make it tough to trust long term forecasts except the things that are stubborn. Right now there are stubborn features that do not look wintry at all for this area of the country! I will keep watching!