Thoughts on #Irma


She remains a threat to the Southeastern United States Coast.

Talk about changes in models! WOW! The latest MODELS show Irma may impact Florida or even a Southern Florida! The system that was being forecasted to help it come north may miss it and another system may finally help it come north!! So many reminders of why long range forecasting for such systems is really unreliable past five days! So even what I am sharing now will likely adjust. Anyone from Florida to the Carolinas should keep monitoring and I do not care what my gut call or feelings are, they cannot be trusted! LOL! WHAT I CAN SAY is that anyone from Florida to the Carolinas should get some supplies. Water is already going off shelves and that should continue. You have a chance still to order from Amazon or other services as well! About all that I can say so far today so far!

AT THIS POINT do not trust anyone with definite forecasts! Also, I think Irma will be very strong no matter what and have an impact on regions, but some models show a ridiculous strength Hurricane and this is not likely! WHICH regions will be impacted exactly, when, and how strong are all debatable. I would say, that there is a strong leaning towards at least coastal impacts from Florida to the Mid Atlantic, and a higher than normal chance of a landfall (or even multiple with Florida and maybe again in the Carolinas!) but WE JUST DO NOT KNOW YET!

NWS Miami put out this list: