Technical discussion from the Storm Prediction Center on severe risks today -…


Summary

Technical discussion from the Storm Prediction Center on severe risks today – …MID ATLANTIC… MORNING CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SPREADING SEWD FROM PA WILL LIKELY ACT TO ENHANCE BACK-DOOR BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY ESSENTIALLY BI-SECTING CHESAPEAKE BAY AT…


Technical discussion from the Storm Prediction Center on severe risks today –
…MID ATLANTIC…
MORNING CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SPREADING SEWD FROM PA WILL LIKELY ACT TO ENHANCE BACK-DOOR BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY ESSENTIALLY BI-SECTING CHESAPEAKE BAY ATTM. AIRMASS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIDED BY ERN-MOST EXTENT OF EML PLUME EMANATING FROM THE MIDWEST. SBCAPE MAY REACH 1500 J/KG WITH GRADUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTENING. LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS SEEM REASONABLE BUT SOME MODEL SCENARIOS MAY BE TOO MOIST. LIFT OVER THE AREA WILL BE AIDED BY LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE /MCV FROM TUESDAY/S MIDWEST CONVECTION/ AND THIS IN TURN SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE THE PROSPECTS FOR WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE WEAK WAVE/LOW SHOULD TRACK SEWD COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING FROM NW TO SE. WHILE A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT…POTENTIAL MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND/OR DRIER DOWNSLOPE AIR LIMITING STRONGER DESTABILIZATION.