I certainly hope not!


Summary

I certainly hope not!


Timeline Photos
Tropical Storm next week? A little early, huh?
This sounds crazy, so let me preface this by comparing two models for next Thursday and that this is a 144 hour forecast.
But this is my ‘trusty’ Canadian Model, so I had to say something…
On the left: The Canadian is showing a potential depression or even Tropical Storm (Arthur) passing through the Bahamas, and reaching the southeast US next Thursday May 15th. Then it hooks up with a cold front and makes a beeline for Maryland by Friday. Yes, that is a week away.
On the right: The GFS Model shows a strong cold front, but no tropical system whatsoever.

Why show this?
Many of you have followed my winter forecasts and how well the Canadian Model had done along the way. That model is great with winter events and cold air dominated patterns. I don’t necessarily have the same confidence in it with tropical systems, but there have been some adjustments, so perhaps it may be on to something. That is what I will track and share over the next few days.
THIS IS NOT A PROMISE FOR TS ARTHUR! But we will see how it does…


I certainly hope not!


Timeline Photos
Tropical Storm next week? A little early, huh?
This sounds crazy, so let me preface this by comparing two models for next Thursday and that this is a 144 hour forecast.
But this is my 'trusty' Canadian Model, so I had to say something…
On the left: The Canadian is showing a potential depression or even Tropical Storm (Arthur) passing through the Bahamas, and reaching the southeast US next Thursday May 15th. Then it hooks up with a cold front and makes a beeline for Maryland by Friday. Yes, that is a week away.
On the right: The GFS Model shows a strong cold front, but no tropical system whatsoever.

Why show this?
Many of you have followed my winter forecasts and how well the Canadian Model had done along the way. That model is great with winter events and cold air dominated patterns. I don't necessarily have the same confidence in it with tropical systems, but there have been some adjustments, so perhaps it may be on to something. That is what I will track and share over the next few days.
THIS IS NOT A PROMISE FOR TS ARTHUR! But we will see how it does…