Hydrometeorological Prediction Center outlook


 

 

 

There outlook:

HPC Outlook for greater than 4 inches of snow for Monday

HPC Outlook for greater than 4 inches of snow for Monday

SOMEWHAT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE WITH THE 12Z GFS AS ONE OF
FLATTER SOLUTIONS RESULTING IN A MORE SUPPRESSED SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND LESS MOISTURE REACHING
WEST VIRGINIA/PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A
STRONGER WAVE...BUT LESS AMPLIFICATION THAN SHOWN BY THE 00Z
ECMWF. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE PREFERENCE OF A BLEND
BETWEEN THE FLATTER 12Z GFS AND STRONGER 12Z UKMET WHICH SEEMS TO
BE A MOVE IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. STRONGER MODELS LIKE THE 00Z
ECMWF INDICATE MORE QPF BUT ALSO A WARMER SOLUTION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND LESS SNOW...WHILE MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTIONS ARE
COLDER BUT INDICATE LESS QPF. A MIDDLE GROUND IS EXPECTED BUT NO
ONE MODEL SOLUTION FAVORS THIS SCENARIO WITH THE 12Z UKMET/CMC
MUCH HEAVIER WITH QPF INTO THE CNTRL/NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO START OFF
AS RA/PL/FZRA MIX BUT TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
IN BEHIND THE WAVE.

Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml