As my friend @ianlivinston pointed out, saying the coastal low is going to be strong was an overstatement. The gradient between the high pressure to the north and the Low forming and slowly moving north will cause copious rains for North Carolina and upstate South Carolina! Higher elevations will see 3 to 6 inches of rain from the upslope help and persistent flow off the ocean and that amount could reach into southwest VA as well. The coastal areas could also see amounts approach 6 inches. The southern half of Virginia should do well with moderate rains reaching just north of Richmond and points east to west below this. Rains become heavier towards Southeastern VA and along the NC/VA Border. The Nothern and Northwestern VA and most of Marland west of the bay may only see rains in the quarter to as much as half of an inch or even stay drier.. the further north you are, the less you will get. THERE ARE STILL some model challenges going on and the northern extent of moderate rain is still in question. Honestly, it could go drier in the northern half of Virginia with moderate and heavy rain may be further south. *IT COULD* come further north as well, but I have less confidence in this at the current time.
Cloudy and cool conditions for the weekend, with wetter conditions the closer you get to North Carolina! They need the rain! I added the Drought Monitor for the region and North Carolina is in bad shape so this will be helpful!
For the latest Rain outlooks go to The Rainfall Forecast
Latest for the area over the next 5 days here: