Mid Atlantic Weather Outlook: NICE WEEK! Long Range Looks Changeable! #Midatlwx

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

The Mid Atlantic Weather Outlook for Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, and North Carolina

For the Mid Atlantic, the weather looks cool to start days but the week will end up being very nice. Temps will be in the 60s today with 70s returning tomorrow! Temps will stay in the 70s straight through the weekend with lows tonight in the 30s North and West and 40s elsewhere. Frost and maybe some far Western freezing temperatures are likely again tonight! Night temps will stay in the 40s and lower 50s the rest of the week through Sunday! Temps will be the warmest Sunday where a few 80s may appear in the far south (NC) areas.

We look cool to start the week and then very very nice. Temps will be in the 60s today with 70s returning tomorrow! Temps will stay in the 70s straight through the weekend with lows tonight in the 30s North and West and 40s elsewhere. Frost and maybe some far Western freezing temperatures are likely again tonight! Night temps will stay in the 40s and lower 50s the rest of the week through Sunday! Temps will be the warmest Sunday where a few 80s may appear in the far south (NC) areas.

We look cool to start the week and then very very nice. Temps will be in the 60s today with 70s returning tomorrow! Temps will stay in the 70s straight through the weekend with lows tonight in the 30s North and West and 40s elsewhere. Frost and maybe some far Western freezing temperatures are likely again tonight! Night temps will stay in the 40s and lower 50s the rest of the week through Sunday! Temps will be the warmest Sunday where a few 80s may appear in the far south (NC) areas.

Next Monday will feature a chance of showers.

Long range

It still looks like a chance for a very cool snap and MAYBE even some WV and Far Western MD snow showers! That colder snap will likely have a nice rainstorm to usher it in!

The graphic here is an average for the 8-14 day period from the Climate Prediction Center, but the below average temperatures will really start showing up around the 29th so the cold has not offset the warmth yet – you see it approaching from the West. This should show below normal soon!

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook for the Mid Atlantic Region

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook for the Mid Atlantic

 

What about the Mid Atlantic Winter Weather Outlooks?

I am compiling my reasoning for my outlook and will share this soon.  Meanwhile, I will be posting more Winter Outlooks to the Tab soon!




Wet start to the week! Drying and seasonably cool late week- #Midatlwx

Gonna get quite wet with waves of rain the next 3 days. 1 to 2 inches of rain looks common with areas of SW VA and Western NC seeing upwards of 3 inches in spots which prompted flood watches to these very wet areas! Clearing should take place during the day Wednesday and then seasonable temperatures will be in place the rest of the week and into the weekend. This means highs around 50 in the North and in the mid and upper 50s southern areas.

So when may it get wintry?

There are hints of a pattern change around or after the 15th, but I saw hints to a pattern change for this week. I do think we saw a pattern change taking place this week, but the progression of change is looking SLOWER than models were originally showing! This will make it tough to trust long term forecasts except the things that are stubborn. Right now there are stubborn features that do not look wintry at all for this area of the country! I will keep watching!

rain11_30_2015


Weekend Chill is the next big story – #Midatlwx

The rest of the week looks nice, although a couple of showers do look possible Friday as the front comes through, in general, dry and a little below normal temps in the 60s and 70s will be the rule. After the front clears the area Friday night, cooler temps with highs only in the 50s to low and mid-60s will be the forecast Saturday, Sunday, and Monday! The cold Saturday night and Sunday will bring frost and freezes to the mountains, foothills, and Piedmont areas.

Dry weather looks to dominate the weather in the longer term, but after the cold shot, warmer conditions seem likely to return with seasonal to slightly above seasonal levels!

Below are the National Weather Service’s forecast for lows overnight Saturday.

NWS Projected Lows Saturday Night


Storms tomorrow – Cool weekend – #Midatlwx

Another great day with highs in the 70s and 80s. A bit warmer tomorrow with highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s area-wide! We also will see a front cross the region tomorrow into tomorrow night. the Storms Prediction Center has highlighted some areas for a marginal risk for severe (About a 5% chance) for tomorrow. The front clears the eastern and southern areas Saturday morning and cooler air follows with highs in the low and mid-60s North and Lower 70s south! The coldest air for some areas will set up morning lows in the upper 30s for the Mountains and 40s for the northern Piedmont areas of the Mid-Atlantic. Long term I am seeing that cold shot again on Models and we could see frosty conditions sometime around Next weekend! We will see.

All for now!

Friday SPC Outlook

Friday SPC Outlook

FROM SPC:

...MID-ATLANTIC...
   A FAST-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE CNTRL
   APPALACHIAN MTNS. AS SFC TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY...CONVECTION
   SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S F SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
   POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AS A
   RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT
   DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS MOVING SEWD
   ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT PHILADELPHIA PA AND
   RICHMOND VA FOR 21Z/FRIDAY SHOW MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM
   SHEAR OF 35 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH VEERED WINDS AT LOW-LEVELS AND
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE 850 MB MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
   MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELLS ALONG THE
   FRONT.

SPC Storm Categories

Fall Foliage Network!


Coming into some focus! #Midatlwx

STILL Monitor the weather as there are many things that can change! Models are showing a more easterly component to the Hurricane!

So Joaquin is super strong! Could be a Category 4 at the moment based on the latest Hurricane Hunter readings! That strength does make him a force to be watched, but also systems this this do not get as easily grabbed by troughs.. and I think we see this. The European Model has been insistent that this system stays east of the East Coast and I am starting to believe it! Other models are ALSO seeing this now and you can see the National Hurricane Center’s shift to the east! This is really good news! We did not want to have something like this on the coast. Pray for people in the Bahamas as the storm is really powerful.  UNTIL this system does get kicked out to sea, we have to monitor as the cone of uncertainty still has landfall possible. THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL UNDETERMINED, SO STAY POSTED!

A phenomena that has been hard to pinpoint in this upcoming system is something called a PER. This is a “tongue” of moisture (it is more complex than that, but just for simplicity sake) that is aided by a tropical system that can combine with other systems and drop large amounts of rain. You can see that the placement of this moisture has shifted all the way down to South Carolina. They could see 8 to 12 inches of rain. Drought conditions will be or have been wiped out by all of the rains! Due to the upper-level system and a low pressure developing along it, rains for Virginia will be the southern half with 3 to 6 inches of rain. Then NC could see 4 to 7 inches. Flooding concerns remain high and pockets of areas, especially western parts of these states could see 10 inches or more.

THINGS COULD CHANGE – but this is best I can read at this time.

Please be careful, do not drive through flooded regions, and pay attention to OFFICIAL NEWS and Weather outlets for the latest watches and warning!

Small updates after noon forecast model runs!

Special props to DT @Wxrisk for seeing this model trend a while back.

 


How much will it rain? A LOT! #Midatlwx

For the next 24 hours, rains will be in the half to 2-inch range for most.. that is in addition to what has fallen today. PLEASE NOTE that some models are bringing heavy rains into northern VA (~4 inches in some areas) this evening! SW VA is dealing with some flooding and other pockets of flooding are possible in the immediate Piedmont and higher elevation areas of Virginia! Areas of the higher elevations of Northern VA, MD, and PA could see 2 to 4 inches of rain which is why flood watches are there and even were expanded some this afternoon! To see the rainfall forecast click here.

The forecast is all muddy for the weekend! Consensus is there on models that heavy rains appear to be heading for the area this weekend. some models point to as much as 10 inches or more of rain in areas. This is a convoluted set up that could involve a tropical system or just be an eventual strong Nor’easter… the final solution is very hard to pin down. I would check the gutters and clear drains to make sure things are working as well as test the sump pump if you have not done so in a while.. All for now..

Hope to do a better write up later!

 

 


Heavy rains, coastal floods, drier north. Long range?

The low on the east coast is slowly creeping north and the northeast over the weekend. The persistent easterly flow will cause a continuation of rain that has already accumulated between two and as much as five and six inches in some areas. As of now the places with the most rain have been the higher terrain of Southwest Virginia and Western North Carolina as well as coastal areas. Rain has been very slow to make it in the north due to the dry air that has been filtered down from the north due to a strong high pressure. As this high to the north start lifting to the northeast, we should see more moisture slowly spread north overnight and into Sunday. This will mean areas of Northern Virginia and even Maryland will see some rain. The rain will not be very heavy in Maryland or Northern Virginia except in the higher terrain of the area to the west and southwest. In those regions may be up to an inch of rain will occur. The rain will start to depart on Monday from the northern areas painting clouds will slowly disappear for a cool season of all week. As we look towards the next weekend another low pressure could be coming from the golf as well as an upper level system which will combine for a possible scenario for at least the southern mid-Atlantic. In the very long range there are definite signs that a change in the weather will occur in cooler conditions will be more likely that that may not come until late in October. The pattern is definitely going through some changes and this will mean that there are more possibilities 4 low pressure systems and rain chances.

 

Of note, the persistent flow on the east coast is going to cause moderate to even major flooding on the coastal areas of southeastern Virginia so please be alert and do not drive through flood waters.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=akq&wwa=coastal%20flood%20warning

floodwarning

 


Coastal Soaker on track! Cool and Wet! #Midatlwx

As my friend @ianlivinston pointed out, saying the coastal low is going to be strong was an overstatement. The gradient between the high pressure to the north and the Low forming and slowly moving north will cause copious rains for North Carolina and upstate South Carolina! Higher elevations will see 3 to 6 inches of rain from the upslope help and persistent flow off the ocean and that amount could reach into southwest VA as well. The coastal areas could also see amounts approach 6 inches. The southern half of Virginia should do well with moderate rains reaching just north of Richmond and points east to west below this. Rains become heavier towards Southeastern VA and along the NC/VA Border. The Nothern and Northwestern VA and most of Marland west of the bay may only see rains in the quarter to as much as half of an inch or even stay drier.. the further north you are, the less you will get. THERE ARE STILL some model challenges going on and the northern extent of moderate rain is still in question. Honestly, it could go drier in the northern half of Virginia with moderate and heavy rain may be further south.  *IT COULD* come further north as well, but I have less confidence in this at the current time.

Cloudy and cool conditions for the weekend, with wetter conditions the closer you get to North Carolina! They need the rain! I added the Drought Monitor for the region and North Carolina is in bad shape so this will be helpful!

For the latest Rain outlooks go to The Rainfall Forecast

Latest for the area over the next 5 days here:

latestprecipoutlook

 


“warmer” weekend – Monday has wintry weather possible for some, but exactly who?

Starting today temps will warm up well above freeing! Temps should top out in the 40s! Time for some melting! Tomorrow we warm even more so that upper 40s to even upper 50s in the south.

Things become more tricky based on a frontal passage that will occur sometime between Sunday and Monday – How soon that front moves through and a system develops along it will have a lot to do with the precipitation that does fall and what form it takes. I am feeling NORTHERN VA and MD are in the best spots for snow, but there are solutions north of this bringing rain to VA and snow to PA/MD, as well as system south. The timing is all important, and, even at this shorter time frame, is hard to pinpoint. More after mid day models!