It is hard to imagine the amount of rain that has already fallen in parts of the Houston area and more rain is on the way. Devastating, heart-wrenching, catastrophic.. just I cannot express how terrible I feel after reading tweets and Facebook posts of people in the storm! Please Pray for Texas and then look for practical ways to help, money or otherwise. Days, weeks, and years will be needed for people to recover. This is Houston’s Katrina.
For our weather, a stalled out front along the East Coast will pick up a tropical system near Florida and ride up along the coast. Rain from the storm could be several inches along the coast. Due to easily winds and rough water, rip currents are already a problem so please heed lifeguards and be very safe. Heavy rain and gusty winds will mainly be confined to coastal areas. Elsewhere the easterly fetch and a low-pressure coming up the coast should increase the chance of rain over the next several days. Very cool conditions for this time a year with highs struggling to reach 70° in northern areas and in the low and mid-70s to the South on Monday. Temperatures will increase slightly through the week and will reach 80 in the north by Thursday. As of now, drier air will start to push into the region Thursday and this could set up a very nice weekend.
Longer-term a chance exists for a front any coastal low sometime in the first week of September. There is a chance that this could bring much cooler air into the region sometime late that first week. Since this is so far out I would not plan on it yet but it is something I wanted to share
Gonna get quite wet with waves of rain the next 3 days. 1 to 2 inches of rain looks common with areas of SW VA and Western NC seeing upwards of 3 inches in spots which prompted flood watches to these very wet areas! Clearing should take place during the day Wednesday and then seasonable temperatures will be in place the rest of the week and into the weekend. This means highs around 50 in the North and in the mid and upper 50s southern areas.
So when may it get wintry?
There are hints of a pattern change around or after the 15th, but I saw hints to a pattern change for this week. I do think we saw a pattern change taking place this week, but the progression of change is looking SLOWER than models were originally showing! This will make it tough to trust long term forecasts except the things that are stubborn. Right now there are stubborn features that do not look wintry at all for this area of the country! I will keep watching!
I am sorry for not posting in the last few days, especially as NC/SC had quite a wet run!
If you didn’t get a chance to see it, I did post my winter outlook yesterday. I have also added more winter outlooks to the winter outlooks tab. I also wanted to mention that over the weekend I learned of the passing of a young meteorologist named Martin Cornick, who apparently passed from an illness. It is always sad to see young people pass away as he was only 24 years old. Martin was very active over at Americanwx.com, and worked at a news station in Norfolk Virginia. He was a very enthusiastic weather junkie who enjoyed chasing snow far from home and was a very nice guy. My sympathies to his family and friends.
A beautiful day for people north of Richmond and in the northern mid-Atlantic today after the fog clears out this morning. Temperatures will rise to the upper 60s and lower and mid 70’s in this region. Unfortunately due to easterly winds cooler and damp weather will persist in the southern part of Virginia and into North and South Carolina. Temperatures there will only be in the 60’s in that region. That pattern seems difficult to break today or tomorrow and will expand a little bit into more of Southwest Virginia in the next 24 hours. Wednesday night there will be showers spreading into all areas of Virginia and Maryland and continuing in North and South Carolina. But as of Thursday some clearing will occur and temperatures should really start to rise. Highs on that day will be in the 70’s area wide and approaching upper 70’s in the southernmost regions. Friday will be the warmest day of the week where the temperatures will be in the mid and upper 70’s (unless of course in the mountains), and an 80-degree temperature will not be out of the question especially the further south and east to go. A front will slowly traverse the area starting in the late Friday afternoon continuing overnight and into Saturday with a chance of showers both Friday night and Saturday area wide. Cooler temperatures will also follow with highs dropping into the 50’s and 60’s area wide. By Sunday morning showers should be pushing southeastward and slowly we should see clearing. Some of the highest elevations of West Virginia to have a chance to see some snow showers as a cooler air filters in Sunday morning. Although we will have cooler weather this weekend, a warming trend does seem likely again next week. All for now.
The rest of the week looks nice, although a couple of showers do look possible Friday as the front comes through, in general, dry and a little below normal temps in the 60s and 70s will be the rule. After the front clears the area Friday night, cooler temps with highs only in the 50s to low and mid-60s will be the forecast Saturday, Sunday, and Monday! The cold Saturday night and Sunday will bring frost and freezes to the mountains, foothills, and Piedmont areas.
Dry weather looks to dominate the weather in the longer term, but after the cold shot, warmer conditions seem likely to return with seasonal to slightly above seasonal levels!
Below are the National Weather Service’s forecast for lows overnight Saturday.
Another great day with highs in the 70s and 80s. A bit warmer tomorrow with highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s area-wide! We also will see a front cross the region tomorrow into tomorrow night. the Storms Prediction Center has highlighted some areas for a marginal risk for severe (About a 5% chance) for tomorrow. The front clears the eastern and southern areas Saturday morning and cooler air follows with highs in the low and mid-60s North and Lower 70s south! The coldest air for some areas will set up morning lows in the upper 30s for the Mountains and 40s for the northern Piedmont areas of the Mid-Atlantic. Long term I am seeing that cold shot again on Models and we could see frosty conditions sometime around Next weekend! We will see.
All for now!
Friday SPC Outlook
A FAST-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS. AS SFC TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY...CONVECTION
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S F SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS MOVING SEWD
ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT PHILADELPHIA PA AND
RICHMOND VA FOR 21Z/FRIDAY SHOW MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 35 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH VEERED WINDS AT LOW-LEVELS AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE 850 MB MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELLS ALONG THE
STILL Monitor the weather as there are many things that can change! Models are showing a more easterly component to the Hurricane!
So Joaquin is super strong! Could be a Category 4 at the moment based on the latest Hurricane Hunter readings! That strength does make him a force to be watched, but also systems this this do not get as easily grabbed by troughs.. and I think we see this. The European Model has been insistent that this system stays east of the East Coast and I am starting to believe it! Other models are ALSO seeing this now and you can see the National Hurricane Center’s shift to the east! This is really good news! We did not want to have something like this on the coast. Pray for people in the Bahamas as the storm is really powerful. UNTIL this system does get kicked out to sea, we have to monitor as the cone of uncertainty still has landfall possible. THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL UNDETERMINED, SO STAY POSTED!
A phenomena that has been hard to pinpoint in this upcoming system is something called a PER. This is a “tongue” of moisture (it is more complex than that, but just for simplicity sake) that is aided by a tropical system that can combine with other systems and drop large amounts of rain. You can see that the placement of this moisture has shifted all the way down to South Carolina. They could see 8 to 12 inches of rain. Drought conditions will be or have been wiped out by all of the rains! Due to the upper-level system and a low pressure developing along it, rains for Virginia will be the southern half with 3 to 6 inches of rain. Then NC could see 4 to 7 inches. Flooding concerns remain high and pockets of areas, especially western parts of these states could see 10 inches or more.
THINGS COULD CHANGE – but this is best I can read at this time.
Please be careful, do not drive through flooded regions, and pay attention to OFFICIAL NEWS and Weather outlets for the latest watches and warning!
Small updates after noon forecast model runs!
Special props to DT @Wxrisk for seeing this model trend a while back.
The weather will remain unsettled for the rest of the week with some questionable model output and some uncertainty for the end of the week!
This week started with a cloudy day and very humid conditions. Temperatures were able to climb into the eighties in places where the sun was able to break through or come close to breaking through the clouds. A frontal system approaches the region tomorrow and will bring copious rain due to its slower movement. Amounts look heavier in the western/higher elevation regions where one to two inches of rain could fall. Everyone else will have moderate rain with .75″ to 1.5″ falling mainly tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. The front will then get hung up along the East Coast and stay there for the rest of the week. Tropical depression 11 formed off the east coast and could be absorbed into the frontal system and cause rain for parts of the region. This is where the forecast becomes complicated. Some models really do some crazy things with the forecast and spin up a serious low pressure off the east coast that comes ashore somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast. How much rain and exactly how strong the storm becomes is definitely something to monitor. Models have been inconsistent on exactly how to handle this pattern but it does appear that the Northeast at least will be very wet from the combination of the front and whatever moisture comes in from the Atlantic and even some Gulf of Mexico moisture. Things may start to clear on Sunday. Temperatures will remain below normal for the rest of the week and could become very below normal over the weekend.
As you can tell from my many uncertain statements, there are different scenarios that could affect the exact weather that we see towards the end of the week into the weekend. I will try and update more frequently due to the amount of rain and if the potential for a more serious system this weekend starts to show up in models.
Below you will find The Weather Prediction Center’s forecast for how about for rain will fall over the next seven days which shows you how much potential there is for rain in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
As my friend @ianlivinston pointed out, saying the coastal low is going to be strong was an overstatement. The gradient between the high pressure to the north and the Low forming and slowly moving north will cause copious rains for North Carolina and upstate South Carolina! Higher elevations will see 3 to 6 inches of rain from the upslope help and persistent flow off the ocean and that amount could reach into southwest VA as well. The coastal areas could also see amounts approach 6 inches. The southern half of Virginia should do well with moderate rains reaching just north of Richmond and points east to west below this. Rains become heavier towards Southeastern VA and along the NC/VA Border. The Nothern and Northwestern VA and most of Marland west of the bay may only see rains in the quarter to as much as half of an inch or even stay drier.. the further north you are, the less you will get. THERE ARE STILL some model challenges going on and the northern extent of moderate rain is still in question. Honestly, it could go drier in the northern half of Virginia with moderate and heavy rain may be further south. *IT COULD* come further north as well, but I have less confidence in this at the current time.
Cloudy and cool conditions for the weekend, with wetter conditions the closer you get to North Carolina! They need the rain! I added the Drought Monitor for the region and North Carolina is in bad shape so this will be helpful!
## Headline updated! Due to stronger gradients between this low and high to the north, winds on the coast will be gusty and oceans rough, but this is not a strong low as much as a persistent feed of wet weather! ##
Latest weather models show that the Northwestern Part of VA and most of Maryland except the eastern/coastal may not see too much rain from the upcoming system. Cloudy and some rain, but not a washout and likely Sunday and maybe Monday of those areas. Southern/Southeastern Virgina and North Carolina are going to get rains in the 2 to 4 inches category with coastal regions seeing some amounts to 6 inches! High winds and heavy surf are likely, even tropical storm force winds along the Virginia and North Carolina beaches! Exact areal extent of rain into Maryland and Western Virginia are still being worked out by models.. AND LET ME STRESS that the exact details of how far north and west the rain gets is still being figured out! Do not be surprised by changes.. as of now Northern Virginia and Maryland may be cloudy but dry for Saturday. The long-term outlook shows a possible repeat for the October 3rd weekend! Weather can get into cycles and repeat every 7 days! Not saying it will, just something to note!
Below is the outlook by the Weather Prediction Center as of this morning!