Nice Labor day – Warm day and then cooler air on the way! #midatlwx

Today looks nice and sunny. Highs in the 80s! Warmer tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s south with mid and upper 80s north. Increased chances of showers and storms as strong cold front approaches. This front will bring a rainy Wednesday as well and slowly clear Thursday. Temps in the north will be only in the 60s Wednesday and low 80s in the south. This front clears the area and sets up a nice weekend with temps near 70 in the north and the low 80s in the south! Coastal areas of North and South Carolina will see an increased chance of showers and storms Saturday night and Sunday.

Eyes then turn to Irma and what she will do in the long range! Surf along the coast is likely to get rough Sunday and beyond!

Thoughts on #Irma

She remains a threat to the Southeastern United States Coast.

Talk about changes in models! WOW! The latest MODELS show Irma may impact Florida or even a Southern Florida! The system that was being forecasted to help it come north may miss it and another system may finally help it come north!! So many reminders of why long range forecasting for such systems is really unreliable past five days! So even what I am sharing now will likely adjust. Anyone from Florida to the Carolinas should keep monitoring and I do not care what my gut call or feelings are, they cannot be trusted! LOL! WHAT I CAN SAY is that anyone from Florida to the Carolinas should get some supplies. Water is already going off shelves and that should continue. You have a chance still to order from Amazon or other services as well! About all that I can say so far today so far!

AT THIS POINT do not trust anyone with definite forecasts! Also, I think Irma will be very strong no matter what and have an impact on regions, but some models show a ridiculous strength Hurricane and this is not likely! WHICH regions will be impacted exactly, when, and how strong are all debatable. I would say, that there is a strong leaning towards at least coastal impacts from Florida to the Mid Atlantic, and a higher than normal chance of a landfall (or even multiple with Florida and maybe again in the Carolinas!) but WE JUST DO NOT KNOW YET!

NWS Miami put out this list: