Rains are ongoing in the Carolinas and the Severe weather threat is actually increasing down there due to the spin in the atmosphere. So as its final number the chance of tornadoes increased and the Severe Storms Prediction Center upped it to an enhanced chance of severe.
Rain totals over the next few days. Note that regions in SE VA and Eastern NC remain saturated so some flooding will be possible but does not look widespread.
Temperatures will be quite cool with highs in the 60s in the north and 70s to the south. Very humid with all the tropical moisture around. We should see improving conditions on Sunday with rain and clouds slowly eroding from the west to the east. Temps will rebound where there is sun, into the 70s and 80s. After a few days of drier weather and warmer temps, things will start to become more cloudy Tuesday through Thursday of next week as another frontal system slowly moves through. This could be the edge of much cooler air that I have been mentioning for a while. We will have to keep an eye on Irma in the long range, and, honestly, when you have Hurricanes interact with the weather, I become unsure of the outcome. So a chance of cooler weather and watching Irma is the long range outlook at this time!
AND, lest you forget, cooler air is starting to increase and caused Frost Advisories in upstate New York for tonight!
I want to address the “Tropical Threat” that Hurricane Irma could pose to the east coast.
FIRST – We are around 10 days from it possibly getting close to the United States and what forecasters see on weather models is unlikely to be the final story for the storm.
SECOND – I do recommend people have disaster plans! http://ready.gov has a lot of resources. Take the time to read and create some kind of plan and then hope you never have to use it!
THIRD – OK, so the pattern this time around for the Atlantic Ocean is a bit anomalous, and, if the patterns are close to what models show now, it DOES lead me to believe that Irma will be a close call or a hit somewhere from the Gulf of Mexico to New England! YA.. that is as specific as it gets!
BUT THIS IS ALL CONJECTURE and conclusions from forecast models which really drop off in accuracy after 5 days! We will see and know a lot more over the next week and all you can do is think of some obvious items that could help! Like, clean gutters and drainage areas, consider having some water on hand if you lose power and would need it. MAYBE, in the next few days take the generator out and start it..just do some simple things and then listen to see if more actions are needed. Let us seriously hope we have NO MORE tropical systems hit land this year! But take some time to think of what you may do in the midst of a natural disaster. Write it down, share with the family since we are in a calm but more aware time knowing what can happen due to Harvey. It will help to talk it out and maybe provide some peace to your family since Harvey was unique in what it did! Then do the few practical things like what I mentioned because they do not require any urgent action. WHAT YOU DO NOT WANT TO HAPPEN is something does become urgent and you have not thought it out, have no way to get supplies, and start to panic. You can stay calmer with a plan!
I will do a quick blurb daily on what I think of Irma – but they will be brief until I think we need more detail because she would affect us! She currently has 115 mph winds and is 1600+ miles east of the Leeward Islands.. WAY OUT THERE! Still way closer to Africa than the United States! She is moving west, Thi is about all we know at this point! She is forecast to strengthen some and is forecasted to become a Category 4 storm in the next few days.